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Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections

Author

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  • Matthieu Crozet

    (RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Julian Hinz

Abstract

Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy-France-by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the French 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that about 16,300 votes for the main far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions' impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2023. "Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections," Working Papers hal-04150484, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04150484
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04150484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2020. "Russian food embargo and the lost trade [Nonparametric counterfactual predictions in neoclassical models of international trade]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 684-718.
    2. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    3. Navin A. Bapat & Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi & T. Clifton Morgan, 2013. "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 79-98, January.
    4. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Dursun Peksen & A. Cooper Drury, 2010. "Coercive or Corrosive: The Negative Impact of Economic Sanctions on Democracy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 240-264, August.
    7. Algan, Yann & Beasley, Elizabeth & Cohen, Daniel & Foucault, Martial, 2018. "The rise of populism and the collapse of the left-right paradigm: Lessons from the 2017 French presidential election," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1805, CEPREMAP.
    8. Susan Hannah Allen, 2005. "The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 117-138, March.
    9. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich & Rodrigo Pinto, 2022. "The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 199-217.
    10. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Clément Malgouyres, 2017. "Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/21, European University Institute.
    12. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
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    14. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Rotte, Ralph, 2024. "Neue Reaktortechnologien, strategische Deglobalisierung und "Tech Wars": Kontraproduktive Folgen für das nukleare Nonproliferations- und Verifikationsregime?," SocArXiv 45wh7, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sanctions; Elections; Embargo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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