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Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia

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  • Lisandra Flach
  • Inga Heiland
  • Mario Larch
  • Marina Steininger
  • Feodora A. Teti

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effects of sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2019 and the resulting countersanctions. We estimate their impact on trade in a gravity framework, allowing for treatment heterogeneity among pairs and sectors, and use the estimated elasticities in a general equilibrium analysis. We find that the sanctions decreased trade with Russia in key sectors, translating to a loss in real income in Russia by 0.3%. Full decoupling of the EU and its allies from Russia would increase this effect to over 4%. Our results emphasize the role of deep sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and international cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:32:y:2024:i:1:p:281-323
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12707
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    1. Florian Dorn & Lisandra Flach & Isabella Gourevich, 2024. "Building a Stronger Single Market: Potential for Deeper Integration of the Services Sector within the EU," EconPol Policy Reports 52, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation

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