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Irreversible decision making in contagious animal disease control under uncertainty : an illustration using FMD in Brittany

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  • Olivier Mahul
  • Alexandre Gohin

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

The concept of irreversible investment is applied to highly contagious animal disease control when uncertainty about the spread of the disease is resolved over time. In comparison with the strategy of destroying infected herds, the vaccination programme causes additional losses that cannot be recovered. These sunk costs are thus irreversible. Therefore, the gain from waiting for new information, namely the quasi-option value, should induce animal health authorities to delay the decision to vaccinate if the probability of a widespread epidemic is not too high. A numerical example is developed for foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Brittany.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Mahul & Alexandre Gohin, 1999. "Irreversible decision making in contagious animal disease control under uncertainty : an illustration using FMD in Brittany," Post-Print hal-01952087, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01952087
    DOI: 10.1093/erae/26.1.39
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01952087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin M. Gramig & Richard D. Horan & Christopher A. Wolf, 2008. "Livestock Disease Indemnity Design When Moral Hazard Is Followed by Adverse Selection," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(3), pages 627-641.
    2. David A. Hennessy, 2007. "Behavioral Incentives, Equilibrium Endemic Disease, and Health Management Policy for Farmed Animals," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 698-711.
    3. Robin N Thompson & Christopher A Gilligan & Nik J Cunniffe, 2018. "Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2014. "Farmers’ willingness to vaccinate against endemic animal diseases: A theoretical approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182780, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Horan, Richard D. & Wolf, Christopher A. & Fenichel, Eli P. & Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr., 2004. "Controlling Wildlife And Livestock Disease With Endogenous On-Farm Biosecurity," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20349, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Fenichel, Eli P. & Horan, Richard D. & Wolf, Christopher A., 2004. "The Role Of Sexual Dimorphism In The Economics Of Wildlife Disease Management," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20395, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Turvey, Calum G., 2003. "Conceptual Issues In Livestock Insurance," Research Reports 18171, Rutgers University, Food Policy Institute.
    8. Kobayashi, Mimako & Melkonyan, Tigran A., 2011. "Strategic Incentives in Biosecurity Actions: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Yun, Seong Do & Gramig, Benjamin M., 2014. "Dynamic Optimization of Ecosystem Services: A Comparative Analysis of Non-Spatial and Spatially-Explicit Models," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170450, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Horan, Richard D. & Wolf, Christopher A., 2003. "The Economics Of Managing Wildlife Disease," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22224, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Kim, Man-keun, 2015. "Supply Driven Input-Output Analysis: Case of 2010-2011 Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Korea," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 38(2), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D. & Wolf, Christopher A., 2005. "A Model of Incentive Compatibility under Moral Hazard in Livestock Disease Outbreak Response," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19200, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Boni, Maciej F. & Galvani, Alison P. & Wickelgren, Abraham L. & Malani, Anup, 2013. "Economic epidemiology of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 135-144.
    14. Tong Wang & David A. Hennessy, 2015. "Strategic Interactions Among Private and Public Efforts When Preventing and Stamping Out a Highly Infectious Animal Disease," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(2), pages 435-451.
    15. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stéphane, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers 208108, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    16. Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D., 2011. "Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behavior," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    19. Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-23, September.
    20. Mangen, M. -J. J. & Burrell, A. M. & Mourits, M. C. M., 2004. "Epidemiological and economic modelling of classical swine fever: application to the 1997/1998 Dutch epidemic," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-54, July.
    21. Kohne, Manfred, 2001. "Perspektiven der landwirtschaftlichen Betriebslehre," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 50(04), pages 1-10.

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