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The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model Competition for Land-Uses

Author

Listed:
  • F. Souty

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)

  • T. Brunelle

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement)

  • P. Dumas

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • B. Dorin,

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • P. Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)

  • R. Crassous

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)

Abstract

Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers ; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper entails several advantages. Firstly, it makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of demand for biomass for food and animal feed, in a consistent approach, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Secondly, yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable marginal lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a calculated boundary between intensive and extensive production. The model equations and parameter values are first described in detail. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Souty & T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & B. Dorin, & P. Ciais & R. Crassous, 2012. "The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model Competition for Land-Uses," Working Papers 2012.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model Competition for Land-Uses
      by Environmental Valuation and Cost-Benefit News in Environmental Valuation & Cost-Benefit News on 2012-06-06 07:04:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Dorin, Bruno & Joly, Pierre-Benoît, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Florian Leblanc & C. Cassen & Thierry Brunelle & Patrice Dumas & Aurélie Méjean, 2014. "Globis final report on Integrated Scenarios D30," CIRED Working Papers hal-01300545, HAL.
    3. T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & W. Ben Aoun & Benoit Gabrielle, 2018. "Unravelling Land-Use Change Mechanisms at Global and Regional Scales," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-14, September.
    4. Tomoko Hasegawa & Ronald D. Sands & Thierry Brunelle & Yiyun Cui & Stefan Frank & Shinichiro Fujimori & Alexander Popp, 2020. "Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1587-1601, December.
    5. Noémie Neverre & Patrice Dumas, 2016. "Projecting Basin-Scale Distributed Irrigation and Domestic Water Demands and Values: A Generic Method for Large-Scale Modeling," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-28, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land-use Change; Modelling; Global Biomass Projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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