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Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Pragmatic Replies

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  • Aurélien Goutsmedt

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)

  • Erich Pinzón-Fuchs

    (UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota])

  • Matthieu Renault

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Francesco Sergi

    (University of Bristol [Bristol])

Abstract

We illustrate how the Lucas Critique was called into question by Keynesian macroeconomists during the 1970s and 1980s. Our claim is that Keynesians' reactions were carried out from a pragmatic approach, which addressed the empirical and practical relevance of the Critique. Keynesians rejected the Critique as a general principle with no relevance for concrete macroeconometric practice; their rejection relied on econometric investigations and contextual analysis of the U.S. 1970s stagflation and its aftermath. Keynesians argued that the parameters of their models remained stable across this period, and that simpler ways to account for stagflation (such as the introduction of supply shocks into their models) provided better alternatives to improve policy evaluation.

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  • Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzón-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2017. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Pragmatic Replies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01625169, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01625169
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01625169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01821825, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    History of macroeconomics; Lucas Critique; Keynesian macroeconometrics; Stagflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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