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Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Goutsmedt

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Erich Pinzón-Fuchs

    (UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota])

  • Matthieu Renault

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Francesco Sergi

    (UWE Bristol - University of the West of England [Bristol])

Abstract

In 1976, Robert Lucas explicitly criticized Keynesian macroeconometric models for their inability to correctly predict the effects of alternative economic policies. Today, most contemporary macroeconomists and some historians of economics consider that the Lucas's critique led forcefully to an immediate disqualification of the Keynesian macroeconometric approach. This narrative is based on the interpretation of the Lucas Critique as a fundamental principle for economic reasoning that was (and still is) logically unquestionable. We consider that this narrative is problematic both in terms of historiography and of the effects that it can have in the field as a way of assigning importance and credit to particular macroeconomists. Indeed, the point of view of the Keynesian economists is missing despite the fact that they were the target of Lucas's paper and that throughout the 1970s and 1980s they produced a fierce reaction against it. In this paper we analyze the reactions by a broad set of authors (that we label as "Keynesians") that disputed the relevance of the critique. In spite of their diversity in methodological, theoretical, and policy issues, these reactions were characterized by their common questioning of the empirical and practical relevance of the Lucas critique.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzón-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," Post-Print hal-03878386, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03878386
    DOI: 10.1215/00182702-7551912
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03878386
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    2. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Matthieu Renault, Francesco Sergi, 2019. "European Economics and the Early Years of the “International Seminar on Macroeconomicsâ€," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_50, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2020. "How macroeconomists lost control of stabilization policy: towards dark ages," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 938-982, November.
    4. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01821825, HAL.
    5. Matthieu Renault, 2020. "Theory to the Rescue of Large-scale Models: Edmond Malinvaud's Alternative View on the Search for Microfoundations," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-27, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France, revised Apr 2021.
    6. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2022. "Centralised and Decentralised Approaches to Multi-Country Macroeconometric Modelling at the Commission of the European Communities: The Short-Lived EUROLINK Model," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22081, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    7. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Danielle Guizzo & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "An Agenda without a Plan. Robert E. Lucas’s Trajectory through the Public Debate [Un programme sans plan. La trajectoire de Robert E. Lucas à travers le débat public]," Post-Print hal-03228955, HAL.
    8. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Truc, Alexandre, 2023. "An independent European macroeconomics? A history of European macroeconomics through the lens of the European Economic Review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2021. "European Economics and the Early Years of the International Seminar on Macroeconomics," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(4), pages 693-722.
    10. Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, Cléo & Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2023. "Modeling intervention: The Political element in Barbara Bergmann's micro-to-macro simulation projects," SocArXiv ynmbe, Center for Open Science.
    11. Robert W. Dimand, 2020. "Macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 564-581, July.
    12. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2023. "Multi-country modelling at the commission of the European communities: Centralised and decentralised approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2019. "Macroeconomics at the Crossroads: Stagflation and the Struggle between "Keynesian" and New Classical Macroeconometric Programs," OSF Preprints y364t, Center for Open Science.
    14. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    15. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.

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