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The Phillips Curve from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics

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  • Duo Qin

Abstract

This essay examines the history of econometrics through a case study of the Phillips curve, that is, econometric modeling of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on a number of questions: What econometric tools did modelers choose to use in modeling the Phillips curve? How did their choices shape the ways that they obtained, interpreted, and theorized the empirical evidence? How did the concerns and problems they encountered feed back into the development of econometrics? This study reveals that much of the interaction between econometrics and economics involved modelers making certain trade-offs between theory and data, and their different positions generated disputes, factions, and confusion. It also reveals that the history of econometric modeling of the Phillips curve mirrors the evolving process of how the Cowles structural modeling paradigm has become consolidated, challenged, reformed, or abandoned.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin, 2011. "The Phillips Curve from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 43(5), pages 283-308, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:hop:hopeec:v:43:y:2011:i:5:p:283-308
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    Cited by:

    1. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2017. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Pragmatic Replies," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17042, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Rancan, Antonella, 2021. "The “Place Of The Phillips Curve” in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the First Federal Reserve Board’s Model (1966-1980s)," OSF Preprints t5jrx, Center for Open Science.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    4. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    5. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzón-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," Post-Print hal-03878386, HAL.
    6. Hoang‐Phuong Do & Aris Spanos, 2024. "Revisiting the Phillips Curve: The Empirical Relationship Yet to be Validated," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 761-793, August.
    7. M.J. Boumans, 2018. "Survey on Recent Work in the History of Econometrics: A Witness Report," Working Papers 18-10, Utrecht School of Economics.

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    Keywords

    econometrics; Phillips Curve;

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