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Modeling purchases as repeated events

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  • Bijwaard, G.E.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • Paap, R.

Abstract

We put forward a statistical model for interpurchase times that takes into account all the current and past information available for all purchases as time continues to run along the calendar timescale. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period and for the timing of the first and consecutive purchases. Purchase occasions are modeled in terms of a counting process, which counts the recurrent purchases for each household as they evolve over time. We show that formulating the problem as a counting process has many advantages, both theoretically and empirically. We illustrate our model for yogurt purchases and we highlight its useful managerial implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Bijwaard, G.E. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2003. "Modeling purchases as repeated events," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-45, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1077
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andros Kourtellos & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2022. "Robust Correlates of Growth Spells: Do Inequality and Redistribution Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1302-1328, December.
    3. Zhuoxin Li & Jason A. Duan & Sam Ransbotham, 2020. "Coordination and Dynamic Promotion Strategies in Crowdfunding with Network Externalities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(4), pages 1032-1049, April.
    4. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    5. Bijwaard, Govert, 2011. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multiple-Spell Multiple-States Duration Models," IZA Discussion Papers 5748, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Ryosuke Igari & Takahiro Hoshino, 2018. "A Bayesian Gamma Frailty Model Using the Sum of Independent Random Variables: Application of the Estimation of an Interpurchase Timing Model," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2018-021, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    7. Lizhen Xu & Jason A. Duan & Andrew Whinston, 2014. "Path to Purchase: A Mutually Exciting Point Process Model for Online Advertising and Conversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1392-1412, June.
    8. Igari, Ryosuke & Hoshino, Takahiro, 2018. "A Bayesian data combination approach for repeated durations under unobserved missing indicators: Application to interpurchase-timing in marketing," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 150-166.
    9. Takahiro Hoshino & Ryosuke Igari, 2017. "Quasi-Bayesian Inference for Latent Variable Models with External Information: Application to generalized linear mixed models for biased data," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2017-014, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    10. Franses, Philip Hans, 2006. "Forecasting in Marketing," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 983-1012, Elsevier.
    11. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Regularity in individual shopping trips: implications for duration models in marketing," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1931-1945.
    12. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Yanting Wu, 2023. "Signaling effects of recurrent list‐price reductions on the likelihood of house sales," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 99-130, February.
    13. Zhuoxin Li & Jason A. Duan, 2014. "Dynamic Strategies for Successful Online Crowdfunding," Working Papers 14-09, NET Institute.
    14. Govert Ewout Bijwaard, 2014. "Multistate event history analysis with frailty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(58), pages 1591-1620.

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