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Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Bai

    (Arizona State University)

  • Patrick Kehoe

    (Princeton University)

  • Cristina Arellano

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

Researchers have documented that in the recent financial crisis the large decline in economic activity and credit has been accompanied by a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model in which financial frictions interact with increases in uncertainty at the firm level to generate a contraction in economic activity and a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We find that our model can generate about 67% of the decline in output of the Great Recession of 2007. A promising feature of our model is that it generates large labor wedges, a feature of the recent data on business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Bai & Patrick Kehoe & Cristina Arellano, 2011. "Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 896, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:896
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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