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Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty

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  • Alan Carruth
  • Andrew Dickerson
  • Andrew Henley

Abstract

This paper focuses on the determinants of aggregate investment spending in the UK for the industrial and commercial companies (ICC) sector. It complements recent work by Cuthbertson and Gasparro, who study an augmented Tobin’s q model of investment in the manufacturing sector. Important focal points of our analysis are a role for real profits (internal funds), which allow firms to combat liquidity constraints when access to capital markets is not perfect, and the impact of irreversibility and uncertainty in determining aggregate investment spending. Earlier work on manufacturing investment by Bean developed a dynamic error‐correction specification based on the flexible accelerator model. Following Cuthbertson and Gasparro we use multivariate cointegration techniques to discover a parsimonious dynamic model, which can explain the investment experience of the ICC sector in the 1980s and early 1990s. Our results show that a model based on investment and output alone does not cointegrate, and a short‐run dynamic model of these variables suffers from heteroscedasticity. This may be consistent with the idea that increased (uncontrolled for) uncertainty has led to increased volatility in investment. The possibility that movements in the real price of gold reflect uncertainty in financial and other traded commodity markets is explored. Investigation of this more general model indicates that real profits and the real price of gold can enhance the explanation of investment spending by the ICC sector.

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  • Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(3), pages 276-300, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:3:p:276-300
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00194
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    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    2. Muyambiri, Brian & Chiwira, Oscar & Enowbi Batuo, Michael & Chiranga, Ngonidzashe, 2010. "The Causal Relationship between Private and Public Investment in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 26671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dey Shubhasis, 2017. "Sources of Uncertainty and the Indian Economy," Working papers 253, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    4. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    6. Vidya Sukumara Panicker & Sumit Mitra & Rajesh Srinivas Upadhyayula, 2018. "Ownership in Emerging Market Firms and International investments: Board independence and CEO duality as Moderators," Working papers 252, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    7. Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    8. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2003. "UK business investment: long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics," Bank of England working papers 196, Bank of England.
    9. Nesrine Dardouri & Abdelkader Aguir & Ramzi Farhani & Mounir Smida, 2023. "Revisiting the Determinants of Investment- The Case of Tunisia," Post-Print hal-04101430, HAL.
    10. Wolassa L. Kumo, 2006. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Aggregate Private Investment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 190-204, June.
    11. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2006/152, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Andrew Brigden & Paul Mizen, 2004. "Interactions between Money, Lending and Investment in the UK Private Non‐Financial Corporate Sector," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 72-99, January.
    14. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    15. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2004. "UK Business Investment and the User Cost of Capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(s1), pages 72-93, September.
    16. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.

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    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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