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Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium

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  • Jianjun Miao
  • Bin Wei
  • Hao Zhou

Abstract

This paper offers an ambiguity-based interpretation of variance premium?the difference between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance?as a compounding effect of both belief distortion and variance differential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our approach endogenously generates variance premium without imposing exogenous stochastic volatility or jumps in consumption process. Such a framework can reasonably match the mean variance premium as well as the mean equity premium, equity volatility, and the mean risk-free rate in the data. We find that about 96 percent of the mean variance premium can be attributed to ambiguity aversion. Applying the model to historical consumption data, we find that variance premium mostly captures depressions, deep recessions, and financial panics, with a postwar peak in 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianjun Miao & Bin Wei & Hao Zhou, 2018. "Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2018-14
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2018-14
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    2. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 16, July-Dece.
    3. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    4. Adoukonou, Olivier & André, Florence & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2021. "The determinants of the convertible bonds call policy of Western European companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7l10qorvrv8tuafch6e0ert238 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R Jahan-Parvar & Cédric Okou, 2018. "Downside Variance Risk Premium," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 341-383.
    10. Park, Yang-Ho, 2015. "Volatility-of-volatility and tail risk hedging returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 38-63.
    11. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2018. "The impact of aggregate uncertainty on herding in analysts' stock recommendations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 90-105.
    12. Hening Liu & Yuzhao Zhang, 2022. "Financial Uncertainty with Ambiguity and Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2120-2140, March.
    13. Julian Thimme & Clemens Völkert, 2015. "Ambiguity in the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 418-429, July.
    14. Ariel M. Viale & Antoine Giannetti & Luis Garcia-Feijoó, 2020. "The stock market’s reaction to macroeconomic news under ambiguity," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(1), pages 65-97, March.
    15. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2015, January-A.
    16. Wei‐Shao Wu & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Bank Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2037-2069, December.
    17. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    18. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    19. Ghaderi, Mohammad & Kilic, Mete & Seo, Sang Byung, 2024. "Why do rational investors like variance at the peak of a crisis? A learning-based explanation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    20. Bin Wei, 2021. "Ambiguity, Long-Run Risks, and Asset Prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    21. Aramonte, Sirio, 2014. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 25-49.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity aversion; learning; variance premium; regime shifts; belief distortion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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