IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/757.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics

Author

Abstract

This paper provides an analytical study of spurious regressions involving the levels of economic time series. As asymptotic theory is developed for regressions that relate independent random walks. It is shown that the usual t ratio significance tests do not possess limiting distributions but actually diverge as the sample size T approaches infinity. The Durbin-Watson statistic, on the other hand, converges in probability to zero. An alternative asymptotic theory is also analyzed. An alternative asymptotic theory is developed based on the concept of continuous data recording. This theory together with the large sample asymptotics that we present go a long way towards explaining the experimental results of Granger and Newbold (1974, 1977).

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:757
    Note: CFP 667.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d07/d0757.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    2. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
    3. Phillips, P. C. B., 1987. "Asymptotic Expansions in Nonstationary Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 45-68, February.
    4. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    6. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    7. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
    2. Arai, Yoichi, 2016. "Testing For Linearity In Regressions With I(1) Processes," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 111-138, June.
    3. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    4. van Lent, L.A.G.M., 1999. "Incomplete contracting theory in empirical accounting research," Other publications TiSEM 088f797d-9fa4-4081-98f4-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, November.
    6. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2012. "Residual test for cointegration with GLS detrended data," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2012-327, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1994. "Nonstationary Time Series and Cointegration: Recent Books and Themes for the Future," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1081, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 705-735, December.
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Xiaohu Wang & Yonghui Zhang, 2019. "HAR Testing for Spurious Regression in Trend," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    11. Aparicio, Felipe M., 2003. "Cointegration tests based on record counting statistics," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws036615, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    12. K. Maekawa & J. L. Knight & H. Hisamatsu, 1998. "Finite sample comparisons of the distributions of the ols and gls estimators in regression with an integrated regsorad correlated errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 387-413.
    13. Tsung Wu Ho, 1999. "Export-orientation and investment-saving correlation: a case of Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 805-813.
    14. Gabriel Rodriguez & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Single-equation tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    15. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    16. Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1354, November.
    17. Schröder, Marcel, 2017. "Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-33.
    18. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    19. Nicholas Taylor, 1998. "Precious metals and inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 201-210.
    20. Asongu, Simplice A. & Folarin, Oludele E. & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2019. "The long run stability of money demand in the proposed West African monetary union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 483-495.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.