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Pitfalls in Bootstrapping Spurious Regression

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  • Peter C. B. Phillips

    (Yale University
    University of Auckland
    Singapore Management University
    University of Southampton)

Abstract

The bootstrap is shown to be inconsistent in spurious regression. The failure of the bootstrap is spectacular in that the bootstrap effectively turns a spurious regression into a cointegrating regression. In particular, the serial correlation coefficient of the residuals in the bootstrap regression does not converge to unity, so the bootstrap is not even first order consistent. The block bootstrap serial correlation coefficient does converge to unity and is therefore first order consistent, but has a slower rate of convergence and a different limit distribution from that of the sample data serial correlation coefficient. The analysis covers spurious regressions involving both deterministic trends and stochastic trends. Methods are developed for analyzing the asymptotic behavior of bootstrap techniques with nonstationary time series and the results reinforce longstanding warnings about routine use of the bootstrap with dependent data.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C. B. Phillips, 2021. "Pitfalls in Bootstrapping Spurious Regression," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 163-217, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:19:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s40953-021-00268-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-021-00268-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    20. Sargan, J D, 1975. "Gram-Charlier Approximations Applied to t Ratios of k-Class Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(2), pages 327-346, March.
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    24. Park, Joon Y., 2002. "An Invariance Principle For Sieve Bootstrap In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 469-490, April.
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    26. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
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    28. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2009. "Unit Root And Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is In The Infinite Past," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1682-1715, December.
    29. Hidalgo, Javier, 2003. "An alternative bootstrap to moving blocks for time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-399, December.
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    34. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Unit root log periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 104-124, May.
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    1. Yong Bao & Aman Ullah, 2021. "The Special Issue in Honor of Anirudh Lal Nagar: An Introduction," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 1-8, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic theory; Bootstrap; Brownian motion; Cointegration; LK representation; Nonstationarity; Residual diagnostics; Unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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