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Inflation Anchoring and Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints

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  • Sangyup Choi

    (Yonsei University)

  • Davide Furceri

    (IMF)

  • Prakash Loungani

    (IMF)

  • Myungkyu Shim

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

Can inflation anchoring foster growth? To answer this question, we use panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 36 advanced and emerging market economies over 1990–2014 and employ a difference-in-difference strategy based on the theoretical prediction that higher inflation uncertainty particularly depresses investment in industries that are more credit constrained. Industries characterized by high external financial dependence, liquidity needs, and R&D intensity, and low asset tangibility, tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results, based on an IV approach—using indicators of monetary policy transparency and central bank independence as instruments— confirm our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Myungkyu Shim, 2020. "Inflation Anchoring and Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_032, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2020_032
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    industry growth; inflation anchoring; inflation forecasts; credit constraints; difference-in-difference; central bank independence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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