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Inflation Targeting Regimes in Emerging Market Economies: To Invest or Not to Invest?

Author

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  • Douglas Silveira

    (University of Alberta
    Territorial and Sectorial Analysis Laboratory - LATES)

  • Ricardo B. L. M. Oscar

    (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul)

Abstract

We propose a stochastic learning rule through an Agent-based model to understand how emerging market economies (EMEs) can achieve high levels of investment, given the announced inflation target rate. The central banks act as a pseudo-player, choosing between the pursued target inflation rate or a negative inflation rate. By taking this action as given, bounded-rational firms and workers iteratively play a two-population well-mixed evolutionary game to make investment decisions. Our findings show that when inflation converges to its target, the less the central planners’ effort to reach a steady state with investment coordination. When central banks target a negative inflation rate, it can speed up the EMEs’ convergence to a steady-state with agents coordinating their investment strategies. It shed some light on central banks’ transparency and credibility to avoid the so-called debt-deflation spiral, which typically increases the uncertainty in EMEs, limiting the investments in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Silveira & Ricardo B. L. M. Oscar, 2024. "Inflation Targeting Regimes in Emerging Market Economies: To Invest or Not to Invest?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2097-2129, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:64:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-023-10513-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10513-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based modeling; Inflation targeting; Perfect-foresight and best-response dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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