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The effect of unconventional monetary policy on inflation expectations: evidence from firms in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Boneva, Lena

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Cloyne, James

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Weale, Martin

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Wieladek, Tomasz

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of quantitative easing (QE) and other unconventional monetary policies on inflation and wage expectations of UK manufacturing firms. To identify the effect of QE on firms’ expectations, we use a novel approach of combining microeconometric data with macroeconomic shocks: QE is exogenous to inflation expectations of individual firms, and so are other macroeconomic developments like aggregate inflation or GDP growth. We find that firms’ inflation expectations increase by 0.22 percentage points in response to £50 billion of QE, implying that inflation expectations are part of the transmission mechanism of QE. In contrast, we find a positive but small and insignificant effect of forward guidance on inflation and wage expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Boneva, Lena & Cloyne, James & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "The effect of unconventional monetary policy on inflation expectations: evidence from firms in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 47, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0047
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    Cited by:

    1. Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2020. "Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2017, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Shim, Myungkyu, 2022. "Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ivan Hajdukovic, 2022. "Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 491-536, July.
    6. Oinonen, Sami & Viren, Matti, 2021. "Effects of Monetary Policy Decisions on Professional Forecasters' Expectations and Expectation Uncertainty," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 245-280.
    7. Monique B. Reid & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3355-3376, September.
    8. Amit Kara & Jason Lennard, 2020. "Valuing Economic Statistics: A Case Study," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Occasional Papers ESCOE-OP-02, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    9. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2018. "Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters' expectations and expectations uncertainty," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2018, Bank of Finland.
    10. Bottone, Marco & Tagliabracci, Alex & Zevi, Giordano, 2022. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: Novel evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 15-34.
    11. Cristina Conflitti & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "What’s behind firms’ inflation forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2449-2475, November.
    12. Bouche Paul, & Gerardin Mathilde, & Gautier Erwan, Savignac Frédérique & Savignac Frédérique., 2021. "Measuring firms’ inflation expectations [Mesurer les anticipations d’inflation des entreprises]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 236.
    13. Marco Bottone & Alex Tagliabracci & Giordano Zevi, 2021. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
    15. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2018. "Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters’ expectations and expectations uncertainty," Research Discussion Papers 24/2018, Bank of Finland.
    16. Ferrando, Annalisa & Ganoulis, Ioannis & Preuss, Carsten, 2019. "Firms’ expectations on the availability of credit since the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2341, European Central Bank.
    17. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Cristina Conflitti & Roberta Zizza, 2018. "What�s behind firms� inflation forecasts?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Laura Bartiloro & Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2017. "What does the heterogeneity of the inflation expectations of Italian firms tell us?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 414, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2020. "Professional forecasters' expectations, consistency, and international spillovers," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1001-1024, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; firm survey data; unconventional monetary policy; quantitative easing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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