IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v19y2019i1p15n8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Furceri Davide

    (International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA)

  • Jalles João Tovar

    (International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA, Phone: +1-202-623-8689)

Abstract

We use a difference-in-difference approach to 25 industries for 18 advanced economies over the period 1985–2012 to examine the effect of fiscal counter-cyclicality on productive investment: (i) Research and Development (R&D), and (ii) Information and Communications Technology (ICT). The results show that fiscal counter-cyclicality increases R&D expenditure and the share of ICT capital in industries that are more financially constrained. Moreover, the effect is larger during recessions – when financing constraints are more likely to be binding – than during economic expansions. Our statistical method mitigates concerns about omitted variable bias and reverse causality. In addition, the results are robust to different measures of fiscal counter-cyclicality and to the inclusion of several controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Furceri Davide & Jalles João Tovar, 2019. "Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:15:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0222
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0222
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/bejm-2017-0222?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
    3. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2018. "Determinants and Effects of Fiscal Counter-Cyclicality," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 137-151, April.
    4. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2005. "Long-run money demand revisited: evidence from a non-linear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 19-37, February.
    5. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    6. Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
    8. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    9. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Huang, Yi & Loungani, Prakash, 2018. "Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 314-330.
    10. Fatás Antonio & Mihov Ilian, 2012. "Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-68, October.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Ioana Marinescu, 2008. "Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 251-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    13. Jaime Guajardo & Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 949-968, August.
    14. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2015. "How Is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 327-370, August.
    15. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    16. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Gone with the Headwinds: Global Productivity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2017/004, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Gustavo Adler & Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Ksenia Koloskova & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Gone with the Headwinds; Global Productivity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 17/04, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
    19. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2009. "Schumpeterian Business Cycles with Pro-Cyclical R&D," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 567-591, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Shim, Myungkyu, 2022. "Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2019. "Inflation Anchoring, Real Borrowing Costs, and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data," Working papers 2019rwp-143, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    4. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2020. "The political economy of fiscal procyclicality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Stabilization and Growth: Evidence from Industry-level Data for Advanced and Developing Economies," Working papers 2017rwp-110, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Huang, Yi & Loungani, Prakash, 2018. "Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 314-330.
    3. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 26-40.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Hémous, David & Kharroubi, Enisse, 2014. "Cyclical fiscal policy, credit constraints, and industry growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 41-58.
    5. Jalles, João Tovar, 2018. "Fiscal rules and fiscal counter-cyclicality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 159-162.
    6. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2022. "Heterogeneous gains from countercyclical fiscal policy: new evidence from international industry-level data [Optimal investment with costly reversibility]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 773-804.
    7. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2021. "Output-volatility reducing effects of automatic stabilizers: Policy implications for EMU member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1388-1414.
    8. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    9. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    10. Afonso, António & Carvalho, Francisco Tiago, 2022. "Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy: The case of the Euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    12. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2013. "A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?," Kiel Working Papers 1850, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. António Afonso & Francisco Tiago Carvalho, 2021. "Euro area time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Papers REM 2021/0202, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 71-90, March.
    17. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    18. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross-section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 184-198.
    19. Brüeckner,Markus & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao, 2015. "The effects of volatility, fiscal policy cyclicality and financial development on growth : evidence for the Eastern Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7507, The World Bank.
    20. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial dependence; fiscal counter-cyclicality; industry-level data; recessions vs. expansions; time varying coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:15:n:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.