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Shipping Costs and Inflation

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  • Carriere-Swallow, Yan
  • Deb, Pragyan
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Jiménez, Daniel
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of shocks to global shipping costs—measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targeting regimes and better anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to several checks, including an instrumental variables approach in which we instrument changes in shipping costs with an indicator of closures of the Suez Canal.

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  • Carriere-Swallow, Yan & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2022. "Shipping Costs and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 17259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17259
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    10. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2024. "Shipping cost uncertainty, endogenous regime switching and the global drivers of inflation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. St-Pierre, Marc, 2023. "On market power and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Butollo, Florian & Staritz, Cornelia, 2022. "Deglobalisierung, Rekonfiguration oder Business as Usual? COVID-19 und die Grenzen der Rückverlagerung globalisierter Produktion [Deglobalization, reconfiguration, or business as usual? COVID-19 an," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 393-425.
    14. Cherryl Chico & Zhaowen Wang & Ed Kieran C. Reyes & Mahinthan J. Mariasingham, 2024. "AIS-Based Framework for Analyzing the Impacts of Passageway Disruptions," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 489-511, November.
    15. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Shocked to the core: a new model to understand euro area inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 117.
    16. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    17. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
    18. Christian Glocker & Matteo Iacopini & Tam'as Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2023. "A Bayesian Markov-switching SAR model for time-varying cross-price spillovers," Papers 2310.19557, arXiv.org.
    19. Abdullah Bin Zafar & Tanvir Ahmed Tuhin, 2024. "An Ordinary Least Squares Approach Measuring the Impact of Factors Affecting the Underground Economy of Bangladesh and Their Implications in the Context of the Country’s Supply Chain," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 34(1), pages 92-107.
    20. Stefano Neri, 2024. "There has been an awakening. The rise (and fall) of inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 834, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the global drivers of inflation: How important are oil prices?11We would like to thank Xuguang Simon Sheng, Guest Editor, and two anonymous reviewers for their detailed feedback. We also," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price shocks; Shipping cost; Inflation pass-through; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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