IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/2111.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and Welfare: Comment on Robert Lucas

Author

Listed:
  • Sinn, Hans-Werner

Abstract

The paper argues that Lucas overestimates the Friedman-Bailey type of welfare cost of inflation and neglects other important welfare effects. With an alternative interpretation of the non-observability of low interest rates than the one Lucas gave and the introduction of taxes that reduce the opportunity cost of money holding, the welfare cost shrinks to one third of Lucas' estimate. The neglected welfare effects of inflation include an adverse Baumol-Tobin effect on growth and international capital movements, historical cost accounting for tax purposes, uncertainty about the price level and the relationship between inflation, relative prices and structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1999. "Inflation and Welfare: Comment on Robert Lucas," CEPR Discussion Papers 2111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=2111
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David F. Bradford, 1997. "On the Uses of Benefit-Cost Reasoning in Choosing Policy Toward Global Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 5920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guttorm Schjelderup & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 1999. "Trade, Multinationals, and Transfer Pricing Regulations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 817-844, May.
    3. Sandmo, Agnar, 1998. "Redistribution and the marginal cost of public funds," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 365-382, December.
    4. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    5. Francesca Cornelli & David D. Li, 1997. "Large Shareholders, Private Benefits of Control, and Optimal Schemes of Privatization," CESifo Working Paper Series 133, CESifo.
    6. van Aarle, Bas & Huart, Florence, 1999. "Monetary and fiscal unification in the EU: a stylized analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-66, January.
    7. Assar Lindbeck, 1998. "Incentives in the Welfare State: Lessons for Would-be Welfare States," International Economic Association Series, in: Yair Mundlak (ed.), Contemporary Economic Issues, chapter 1, pages 3-24, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Torsten Persson & Gérard Roland & Guido Tabellini, 1997. "Separation of Powers and Political Accountability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1163-1202.
    9. Choi, Jay Pil & Thum, Marcel, 1998. "Market structure and the timing of technology adoption with network externalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 225-244, February.
    10. Cooter, Robert, 1998. "Expressive Law and Economics," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 585-608, June.
    11. David F. Bradford, 1998. "Transition to and Tax-Rate Flexibility in a Cash-Flow-Type Tax," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 12, pages 151-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jay Pil Choi, 2004. "Tying and innovation: A dynamic analysis of tying arrangements," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 83-101, January.
    13. Jay Pil Choi & Marcel Thum, 2004. "The Economics of Repeated Extortion," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(2), pages 203-223, Summer.
    14. John Livernois & C.J. McKenna, 1996. "Truth or Consequences? Enforcing Pollution Standards," CESifo Working Paper Series 120, CESifo.
    15. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    16. Hoy, Michael & Polborn, Mattias, 2000. "The value of genetic information in the life insurance market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 235-252, November.
    17. Avinash Dixit & John Londregan, 1998. "Ideology, Tactics, and Efficiency in Redistributive Politics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(2), pages 497-529.
    18. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1997. "Deutschland im Steuerwettbewerb (Germany Faces Tax Competition)," CESifo Working Paper Series 132, CESifo.
    19. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Sinn Hans-Werner, 1997. "Deutschland im Steuerwettbewerb / Germany in Tax Competition," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 216(6), pages 672-692, December.
    21. Patricia F. Apps & Ray Rees, 1997. "The Optimal Taxation of Couples," CESifo Working Paper Series 145, CESifo.
    22. Robert Cooter, 1998. "Expressive Law and Economics," CESifo Working Paper Series 161, CESifo.
    23. Schob, Ronnie & Wildasin, David E., 2007. "Economic integration and labor market institutions: Worker mobility, earnings risk, and contract structure," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 141-164, March.
    24. David Bradford, 1996. "Fixing Capital Gains, Symmetry, Consistency and Correctness in the Taxation of Financial Instruments," CESifo Working Paper Series 118, CESifo.
    25. James A. Robinson, 1999. "When is a State Predatory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 178, CESifo.
    26. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Vesa Kanniainen, 1997. "Valuation of Irreversible Entry Options under Uncertainty and Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 144, CESifo.
    27. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal for a Partial Transition to a Funded System," NBER Working Papers 6229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Calmfors, Lars, 1998. "Monetary Union and Precautionary Labour-Market Reform," Seminar Papers 659, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    29. Torben Andersen, 1996. "Incomplete Capital Markets, Wage Formation and Stabilization Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 123, CESifo.
    30. Peter Stemp & Peter J. Stemp, 1997. "What Happens when Inflation Targets Change?," CESifo Working Paper Series 135, CESifo.
    31. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "Germany in tax competition [Deutschland im steuerwettbewerb]," Munich Reprints in Economics 19852, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    32. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August.
    33. Bewley, Truman F., 1998. "Why not cut pay?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 459-490, May.
    34. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 1997. "A State within the State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank," CESifo Working Paper Series 131, CESifo.
    35. Hartwick, John M & Long, Ngo Van, 1999. "Constant Consumption and the Economic Depreciation of Natural Capital: The Nonautonomous Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(1), pages 53-62, February.
    36. Jaleel Ahmad & Jing Yang, 1998. "Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of their Integration into the World Trading System," CESifo Working Paper Series 164, CESifo.
    37. Reiter, Michael & Weichenrieder, Alfons J., 1999. "Public Goods, Club Goods, and the Measurement of Crowding," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 69-79, July.
    38. David F. Bradford & Kyle Logue, 1999. "The Influence of Income Tax Rules on Insurance Reserves," NBER Chapters, in: The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, pages 275-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Asheim, Geir B., 2000. "Green national accounting: why and how?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 25-48, February.
    40. Wolfgang Mayer, 1996. "Gains from Restricted Openings of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 115, CESifo.
    41. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seignorage Wealth in EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 134, CESifo.
    42. Mark Hallerberg & Scott Basinger, 1996. "Why Did All but Two OECD Countries Initiate Tax Reform from 1986 to 1990?," CESifo Working Paper Series 119, CESifo.
    43. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1996. "Tax Burden and Migration: A Political Economy Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Syed Ahsan & Peter Tsigaris, 1998. "The design of a consumption tax under capital risk," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, February.
    45. Livernois, John & McKenna, C. J., 1999. "Truth or consequences: Enforcing pollution standards with self-reporting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 415-440, March.
    46. Apps, Patricia & Rees, Ray, 1999. "On the taxation of trade within and between households," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 241-263, August.
    47. Francesca Cornelli & David D. Li, 1997. "Large Shareholders, Private Benefits of Control, and Optimal Schemes of Privatization," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(4), pages 585-604, Winter.
    48. John Douglas Wilson & Xiwen Fan, 1997. "Tax Evasion and the Optimal Tax Treatment of Foreign-Source Income," CESifo Working Paper Series 125, CESifo.
    49. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "Deutschland im Steuerwettbewerb," Munich Reprints in Economics 19833, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    50. Patricia F. Apps & Ray Rees, 1997. "Individual vs. Joint Taxation in Models with Household Production," CESifo Working Paper Series 147, CESifo.
    51. Dixit, Avinash & Olson, Mancur, 2000. "Does voluntary participation undermine the Coase Theorem?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 309-335, June.
    52. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1998. "European Integration and the Future of the Welfare State," CEPR Discussion Papers 1871, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Hans-Werner Sinn & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 1997. "Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 178-210.
    54. Hans Haller, 1997. "Inefficient Household Decisions and Efficient Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 138, CESifo.
    55. Helmut Frisch & Franz X. Hof, 1996. "The Algebra of Government Debt," CESifo Working Paper Series 121, CESifo.
    56. Andrea Ichino & Aldo Rustichini & Daniele Checchi, 1996. "More Equal but Less Mobile?," CESifo Working Paper Series 112, CESifo.
    57. Sheilagh Ogilvie & Jeremy Edwards, 1998. "Women and the "Second Serfdom": Evidence from Bohemia," CESifo Working Paper Series 177, CESifo.
    58. Manfred J. Holler & Bengt-Arne Wickström, 1998. "The Scandal Matrix: The Use of Scandals in the Progress of Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 159, CESifo.
    59. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Convergence of learning algorithms without a projection facility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 59-86, August.
    60. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Adoption of financial technologies: Implications for money demand and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 134, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    61. Assar Lindbeck, 1996. "Incentives in the Welfare-State," CESifo Working Paper Series 111, CESifo.
    62. Casper De Vries & Jon Danielsson & Casper G, de Vries, 1996. "Tail Index and Quantile Estimation with Very High Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 116, CESifo.
    63. Lars Calmfors, 1998. "Monetary Union and Precautionary Labour-market Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 174, CESifo.
    64. Lensberg, Terje, 1999. "Investment behavior under Knightian uncertainty - An evolutionary approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1587-1604, September.
    65. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1998. "External Shocks and Economic Dynamics: The Case of African Countries," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-42.
    66. John G. Treble, 1998. "Point Schemes," CESifo Working Paper Series 169, CESifo.
    67. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1996. "International Implications of German Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 1508, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Cooter, Robert, 1998. "Expressive Law and Economics," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt3w34j60j, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    70. repec:hhs:iuiwop:449 is not listed on IDEAS
    71. Timur Kuran, 1997. "Ethnic Norms and their Transformation through Reputational Cascades," CESifo Working Paper Series 150, CESifo.
    72. Erkki Koskela & Ronnie Schöb, 1997. "Payroll Taxes vs. Wage Taxes: Non-Equivalence Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 143, CESifo.
    73. Peter Lambert, 1998. "Horizontal Inequity: Some New Perspectives," CESifo Working Paper Series 162, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro SALAZAR-ADAMS & Nicolás PINEDA-PABLOS, 2010. "Policies for Meeting Future Water Needs in Mexican Cities," EcoMod2010 259600147, EcoMod.
    2. Samuel Erasmus ALNAA & Juabin MATEY, 2024. "Assessing the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Welfare in Ghana," Management and Economics Review, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 138-157, February.
    3. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 49-83, May.
    4. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2001. "Does Lower Inflation Imply Lower Price Uncertainty?," EERC Working Paper Series 2k/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fehr, Ernst & Falk, Armin, 2002. "Psychological foundations of incentives," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 687-724, May.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Matthew O. Jackson, 2017. "Social Norms and the Enforcement of Laws," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 245-295.
    3. Bartels, Lara & Kesternich, Martin, 2022. "Motivate the crowd or crowd- them out? The impact of local government spending on the voluntary provision of a green public good," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-040, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Abraham, Diya & Corazzini, Luca & Fišar, Miloš & Reggiani, Tommaso, 2023. "Coordinating donations via an intermediary: The destructive effect of a sunk overhead cost," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 287-304.
    5. Galbiati, Roberto & Vertova, Pietro, 2008. "Obligations and cooperative behaviour in public good games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 146-170, September.
    6. Aspasia Tsaoussi & Eleni Zervogianni, 2010. "Judges as satisficers: a law and economics perspective on judicial liability," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 333-357, June.
    7. Douhou, Salima & Magnus, Jan R. & van Soest, Arthur, 2011. "The perception of small crime," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 749-763.
    8. Riedel, Nadine & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2013. "Asymmetric obligations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 67-80.
    9. Sugiyama, Yuri, 2022. "Can Soft Law Improve the Welfare of Sexual Minorities? The Case of Same-sex Partnership Policy in Japan," CEI Working Paper Series 2022-06, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Prasenjit Banerjee & Vegard Iversen & Sandip Mitra & Antonio Nicolò & Kunal Sen, 2018. "Politicians and Their Promises in an Uncertain World: Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in India," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1806, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Bicchieri, Cristina & Dimant, Eugen & Xiao, Erte, 2021. "Deviant or wrong? The effects of norm information on the efficacy of punishment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 209-235.
    12. Fluet, Claude & Galbiati, Rpbertp, 2016. "Lois et normes : les enseignements de l'économie comportementale," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 191-215, Mars-Juin.
    13. Loet Stekelenburg & Peter T. Dijkstra & Elianne F. Steenbergen & Jessanne Mastop & Naomi Ellemers, 2023. "Integrating Norms, Knowledge, and Social Ties into the Deterrence Model of Cartels: A Survey Study of Business Executives," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 63(3), pages 275-315, November.
    14. Farrow, Katherine & Romaniuc, Rustam, 2019. "The stickiness of norms," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 54-62.
    15. David Dickinson & E. Glenn Dutcher & Cortney Rodet, 2015. "Observed punishment spillover effects: a laboratory investigation of behavior in a social dilemma," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(1), pages 136-153, March.
    16. Sebastian Kube & Christian Traxler, 2011. "The Interaction of Legal and Social Norm Enforcement," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(5), pages 639-660, October.
    17. Bruce Benson, 2018. "The institutional determinants of self-governance: a comment on Edward Stringham’s Private Governance," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 209-230, June.
    18. Jeffrey A. Flory & Andreas Leibbrandt & John A. List, 2016. "The Effects of Wage Contracts on Workplace Misbehaviors: Evidence from a Call Center Natural Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 22342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Richard H. McAdams & Janice Nadler, 2005. "Testing the Focal Point Theory of Legal Compliance: The Effect of Third‐Party Expression in an Experimental Hawk/Dove Game," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 87-123, March.
    20. Torgler, Benno, 2011. "Tax morale and compliance : review of evidence and case studies for Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5922, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost of inflation; Inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.