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What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models

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  • Jaravel, Xavier
  • Sager, Erick

Abstract

This paper fi nds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identi cation strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and that product categories catering to low-income consumers experienced larger price declines.

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  • Jaravel, Xavier & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13902
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    9. Diego A. Comin & Robert C. Johnson, 2020. "Offshoring and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 27957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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    15. Dorn, David & Davenport, Alex & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Import Competition and Public Attitudes towards Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 16339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Prices; Markups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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