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What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US and implications for quantitative trade models

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  • Jaravel, Xavier Laurent
  • Sager, Erick

Abstract

This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and that product categories catering to low-income consumers experienced larger price declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaravel, Xavier Laurent & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US and implications for quantitative trade models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121819, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:121819
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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