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Offshoring and Inflation

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  • Diego A. Comin
  • Robert C. Johnson

Abstract

Did trade integration suppress inflation in the United States? Conventional wisdom says “yes,” based on the disinflationary supply-side impacts of trade. We argue that these supply-side arguments are incomplete, because trade integration also influences aggregate demand. Our analysis leverages two facts: trade integration was a long-lasting, phased-in shock, and offshoring accounts for a large share of it. Given these facts, we show trade integration is inflationary in conventional New Keynesian models. This result continues to hold when we account for US trade deficits, the pro-competitive effects of trade on domestic markups, and cross-sector heterogeneity in trade integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego A. Comin & Robert C. Johnson, 2020. "Offshoring and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 27957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27957
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
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    4. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    5. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    6. Xavier Jaravel & Erick Sager, 2018. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," Economic Working Papers 506, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    7. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2021. "The dynamics of the U.S. trade balance and real exchange rate: The J curve and trade costs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulate,Mauricio & Vasquez,Jose P. & Zarate Vasquez,Roman David, 2023. "Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10434, The World Bank.
    2. Peña, Jennifer & Prades, Elvira, 2024. "International sourcing during COVID-19: How did Chilean firms fare?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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