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Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Silvana Tenreyro
  • Ludovica Ambrosino
  • Jenny Chan

Abstract

How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To answer these questions, we develop a heterogeneous agent, open-economy model featuring imperfect international risk-sharing. The model captures both the demand and supply side effects of fragmentation. It illustrates how the impact of fragmentation on inflationary pressures and the appropriate policy response depends not only on the direct effect of higher import prices on supply but, crucially, on how aggregate demand adjusts in response to lower real incomes and productivity stemming from fragmentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvana Tenreyro & Ludovica Ambrosino & Jenny Chan, "undated". "Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1225, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1225
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Jaravel & Erick Sager, 2018. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," Economic Working Papers 506, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    2. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    3. Jaravel, Xavier & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US for quantitative trade models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Carluccio, Juan & Gautier, Erwan & Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2023. "Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    6. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    7. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Boeckelmann, Lukas & Meunier, Baptiste, 2023. "The economic costs of supply chain decoupling," Working Paper Series 2839, European Central Bank.
    8. Jaravel, Xavier Laurent & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US and implications for quantitative trade models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121819, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; trade fragmentation; open economies; inflation; heterogeneity; globalisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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