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Is Employment Polarization Informative About Wage Inequality and Is Employment Really Polarizing?

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  • Hunt, Jennifer
  • Nunn, Ryan

Abstract

Equating a job with an individual rather than an occupation, we re-examine whether U.S. workers are increasingly concentrated in low and high-wage jobs relative to middle-wage jobs, a phenomenon known as employment polarization. By assigning workers in the CPS to real hourly wage bins with time-invariant thresholds and tracking over time the shares of workers in each, we do find a decline since 1973 in the share of workers earning middle wages. However, we find that a strong increase in the share of workers in the top bin is accompanied by a slight decline in the share in the bottom bin, inconsistent with employment polarization. Turning to occupation-based analysis, we show that the share of employment in low-wage occupations is trending up only from 2002-2012, and that the apparent earlier growth and therefore polarization found in the literature is an artefact of occupation code redefinitions. This new timing rules out the hypothesis that computerization and automation lie behind both rising wage inequality and occupation-based employment polarization in the United States.

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  • Hunt, Jennifer & Nunn, Ryan, 2019. "Is Employment Polarization Informative About Wage Inequality and Is Employment Really Polarizing?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13851
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Longmuir & Carsten Schröde & Matteo Targa, 2020. "De-Routinization of Jobs and Polarization of Earnings: Evidence from 35 Countries," Working Papers 1397, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Jun 2020.
    2. Black, Sandra E. & Muller, Chandra & Spitz-Oener, Alexandra & He, Ziwei & Hung, Koit & Warren, John Robert, 2021. "The importance of STEM: High school knowledge, skills and occupations in an era of growing inequality," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    3. Elliot Moiteaux & Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," THEMA Working Papers 2021-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Domini, Giacomo & Grazzi, Marco & Moschella, Daniele & Treibich, Tania, 2022. "For whom the bell tolls: The firm-level effects of automation on wage and gender inequality," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(7).
    5. Hunt, Jennifer & Nunn, Ryan, 2022. "Has U.S. employment really polarized? A critical reappraisal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Liu, Shimeng & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Human capital externalities or consumption spillovers? The effect of high-skill human capital across low-skill labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Domini, Giacomo & Grazzi, Marco & Moschella, Daniele & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    8. Lawrence Mishel, 2022. "How automation and skill gaps fail to explain wage suppression or wage inequality [Are the Job Prospects of Recent College Graduates Improving?]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 269-280.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment polarization; Wage inequality;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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