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Candid Lame Ducks

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  • Mariana Lopes da Fonseca

Abstract

This study relies on a recent reform introducing gubernatorial term limits at the Portuguese local level to explore how an exogenous variation in eligibility for re-election affects local fiscal policy choices. Relying on electoral and fiscal outcomes for the past three complete electoral terms and a quasi-experimental diff-in-diff approach, the empirical analysis estimates how fiscal policy differs on average between re-eligible and term-limited incumbents. Results indicate that rather than engaging in opportunistic behavior, lame ducks pursue more conservative fiscal policies. Term limited officeholders choose lower property tax rates and reduced levels of current expenditure relative to re-eligible incumbents. Heterogeneous effects further suggest that ineligible mayors behave more truthfully and do not engage in political business cycles, challenging previous results in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariana Lopes da Fonseca, 2016. "Candid Lame Ducks," CESifo Working Paper Series 5773, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5773
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    Cited by:

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    2. Linda G. Veiga & Georgios Efthyvoulou & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles: Conditioning Factors and New Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 21/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco veiga, 2016. "Term limits at the local government level," NIPE Working Papers 7/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Bernardo P. Schettini & Rafael Terra, 2020. "Electoral incentives and Public Employees’ Retirement Systems in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 79-103, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    institutional reform; term limits; fiscal policy; municipal accounts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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