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Term limits, time horizons and electoral accountability

Author

Listed:
  • J. Sebastian Leguizamon

    (Western Kentucky University)

  • George R. Crowley

    (Troy University)

Abstract

Term limits have been known to reduce electoral accountability by removing the possibility of reelection, thus affecting economic policy choices (i.e., the ‘lame duck’ effect). We show that the magnitude and statistical significance of this effect is influenced by the expected length of a future career. By using incumbent age as a proxy for expected career length, we find that the lame-duck effect is statistically observable only among those politicians with long careers ahead. Using data on US governors from 1950 to 2005, we find evidence that the influence of term limits is heterogeneous, primarily influencing young incumbents who hope to have long careers and thus have stronger incentives to remain accountable to voters. Indeed, we find little evidence of a lame-duck effect among older incumbents, suggesting that their already-shortened time horizons may offset the term limit effect.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Sebastian Leguizamon & George R. Crowley, 2016. "Term limits, time horizons and electoral accountability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 23-42, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:168:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-016-0347-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-016-0347-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. J. Sebastian Leguizamon & Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic, 2019. "Party Cues, Political Trends, And Fiscal Interactions In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 600-620, October.
    2. Daniel J. Smith & George R. Crowley & J. Sebastian Leguizamon, 2021. "Long live the doge? Death as a term limit on Venetian chief executives," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 333-359, September.
    3. Yakovlev, Pavel A. & Tosun, Mehmet S. & Lewis, William P., 2018. "The Fiscal Consequences of State Legislative Term Limits," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), January.
    4. Fernando Aragón & Ricardo Pique, 2020. "Better the devil you know? Reelected politicians and policy outcomes under no term limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 1-16, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US States; Electoral accountability; Economic policy; Term limits; Political economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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