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The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle Clock. Today similar monitoring systems are firmly established and are presented by Eurostat, the OECD and others. The German Federal Statistical Office presents the real GDP in a 4-quadrant scheme. In the following, important qualities of the Ifo Business Cycle Clock are shown. The importance of orthogonal functions for the circular correlation is examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3179
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for Cyclical Dominance und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, April.
    2. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2009:i::p:34-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
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    11. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    12. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elsayyad, May & Konrad, Kai A., 2012. "Fighting multiple tax havens," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 295-305.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Drei Monitorsysteme zur Analyse der sächsischen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 33-39, December.
    4. Tadeusz Kufel, 2021. "Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown vs. Business Cycle Clock Registration of New Passenger Cars in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 875-890.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ifo business climate; growth cycle; circular correlation; linear-circular correlation; temporal disaggregation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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