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Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Im Jahr 1993 wurde vom ifo Institut der zyklische Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Komponenten des ifo Geschäftsklimas – Geschäftslage und -erwartungen – erstmals in einem Vier-Quadranten-Konjunkturphasenschema dargestellt: die ifo Konjunkturuhr. Inzwischen gibt es weitere Monitorsysteme, die das zyklische Geschehen in einem Vier-Quadranten-Schema abbilden. Bei diesen Systemen wird für ausgewählte Indikatoren der Zusammenhang zwischen der zyklischen Komponente und deren Veränderung aufgezeigt. Im folgenden Beitrag wird auf die Zusammenhänge zwischen der ifo Konjunkturuhr und einem Konjunkturmonitor eingegangen, der für das reale BIP in Deutschland konstruiert wurde.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:05:p:32-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for Cyclical Dominance und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, April.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, June.
    4. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, July.
    5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov-Switching und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, May.
    7. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Was ist eine Rezession?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 44-45, July.
    8. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    4. Karol Paludkiewicz & Georg Paula & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Die BRIC-Staaten: Ein ökonomischer Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(23), pages 42-50, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturindikator; Sozialprodukt; Geschäftsklima; Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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