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Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Manuel Birnbrich
  • Christian Seiler

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima ist ein Konjunkturindikator, der aus den Ergebnissen der monatlichen Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo Instituts berechnet wird. Die Antworten zu zwei Fragen gehen in diesen Indikator ein: die Bewertung der aktuellen Geschäftslage sowie die Erwartung hinsichtlich der Geschäftsentwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten. Die Interpretation, was unter Geschäftslage und Geschäftsentwicklung zu verstehen ist, wird dabei bewusst den Befragungsteilnehmern überlassen. Im Frühjahr 2009 führte das ifo Institut eine Sonderumfrage bei den Teilnehmern des ifo Konjunkturtests im Handel durch mit dem Ziel, mehr über die Faktoren und die Hintergründe zu erfahren, die den Unternehmen als Grundlage zur Beantwortung der monatlichen Konjunkturumfragen dienen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass für die Beurteilung der aktuellen Geschäftslage und für die Geschäftserwartungen die Determinanten Ertragslage des Unternehmens und Umsatz wesentlich sind. Zudem wird deutlich, dass die beiden Fragen flexibel genug sind, um die Konjunkturentwicklung in verschiedenen Sektoren der Wirtschaft abzugreifen. Zudem zeigen die Angaben in der Metaumfrage, dass der monatliche ifo Konjunkturtest überwiegend von Personen, die an der Spitze der Unternehmen angesiedelt sind, beantwortet wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:21:p:34-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    4. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "ifo Geschäftsklima und Produktionsindex im verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(21), pages 42-45, November.
    5. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, August.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturumfrage; Handel; Geschäftsklima; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General

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