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Macroeconomic shocks and volatility spillovers between stock, bond, gold and crude oil markets

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Yongdeng

    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Guan, Bo

    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Lu, Wenna

    (Cardiff Metropolitan University, Cardiff, United Kingdom)

  • Heravi, Saeed

    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel model to analyse the impact of macroeconomic shocks on volatility spillovers within key financial markets, such as Stock, Bond, Gold and Crude Oil. By treating macroeconomic variables as external factors to financial market volatility, our study distinguishes between internal financial volatility spillovers and external shocks arising from macroeconomic changes. Our analysis reveals that without macroeconomic shocks, the Stock market predominantly acts as the main source of volatility spillovers, with Crude Oil being the principal spillover recipient. However, the Stock market’s role in driving volatility spillover, especially towards the Crude Oil market, changes markedly in the context of macroeconomic shocks. These shocks exert a more substantial impact on Crude Oil compared to other markets. In contrast, the Bond and Gold markets exhibit a lower level of volatility transmission and are less influenced by macroeconomic shocks, thereby reinforcing their roles as stabilizers within the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Yongdeng & Guan, Bo & Lu, Wenna & Heravi, Saeed, 2024. "Macroeconomic shocks and volatility spillovers between stock, bond, gold and crude oil markets," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2024/15
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    Keywords

    Volatility spillover; Macroeconomic shocks; Multiplicative error model; Realized volatility; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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