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Good Volatility, Bad Volatility: Signed Jumps and The Persistence of Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Patton

    (Duke University)

  • Kevin Sheppard

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Using estimators of the variation of positive and negative returns (realized semivariances) and high-frequency data for the S&P 500 Index and 105 individual stocks, this paper sheds new light on the predictability of equity price volatility. We show that future volatility is more strongly related to the volatility of past negative returns than to that of positive returns and that the impact of a price jump on volatility depends on the sign of the jump, with negative (positive) jumps leading to higher (lower) future volatility. We show that models exploiting these findings lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Patton & Kevin Sheppard, 2015. "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility: Signed Jumps and The Persistence of Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 683-697, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:97:y:2015:i:2:p:683-697
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility; trade; market; signed jumps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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