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Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Vector Multiplicative Error Model using the ECCC-GARCH Representation

Author

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  • Xu Yongdeng

    (Economic Section, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3EU, UK)

Abstract

We introduce an ECCC-GARCH representation for the vector Multiplicative Error Model (vMEM) that enables maximum likelihood estimation using the multivariate normal distribution. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that the QML estimator possesses desirable small sample properties (towards unbiasedness and efficiency). In the empirical application, we firstly use a two-dimensional vMEM for the squared return and realized volatility, which nests the High-frEquency-bAsed VolatilitY (HEAVY) and Realized GARCH model. We show that the Realized GARCH model is a more appropriate specification for the dynamics of the return-volatility relationship. The second empirical application is a four-dimensional vMEM for volatility spillover effects in the four European stock markets. The results confirm interdependence across European markets and the relative strength of volatility spillovers increases in the post-2010 turmoil periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu Yongdeng, 2024. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Vector Multiplicative Error Model using the ECCC-GARCH Representation," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:16:y:2024:i:1:p:1-27:n:1001
    DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2022-0018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yongdeng & Guan, Bo & Lu, Wenna & Heravi, Saeed, 2024. "Macroeconomic shocks and volatility spillovers between stock, bond, gold and crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Xu, Yongdeng, 2024. "Extended multivariate EGARCH model: A model for zero†return and negative spillovers," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    vector MEM; QML; HEAVY; realized GARCH; spillover effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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