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The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: evidence from Switzerland

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  • Christoph Basten
  • Catherine Koch

Abstract

We identify the causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and supply in Switzerland by exploiting exogenous shocks to immigration and thereby to house prices. Detailed micro data on individual requests and offers allow to close down possible other channels. We find that within the same interest rate environment 1% higher house prices imply 0.52% higher mortgage amounts. The full partial correlation of 0.78% suggests also positive feedback from mortgage volumes to house prices. While we find higher house prices to increase mortgage demand, banks respond if anything with fewer offers and higher rates, especially later in the boom and for highly leveraged households.

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  • Christoph Basten & Catherine Koch, 2016. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Working Papers 555, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:555
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    Cited by:

    1. Zeno Adams & Kristian Blickle, 2018. "Immigration And The Displacement of Incumbent Households," Working Papers on Finance 1809, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Martin Brown & Matthias Hoffmann, 2016. "Relationship Banking in the Residential Mortgage Market? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(I), pages 23-48, March.
    3. Fischer, Andreas & Zachmann, Lucca, 2020. "The effect of self-financed property buyers on local house prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 14632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Fahim Ullah & Samad M. E. Sepasgozar, 2020. "Key Factors Influencing Purchase or Rent Decisions in Smart Real Estate Investments: A System Dynamics Approach Using Online Forum Thread Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-36, May.
    5. Nicholas Garvin & Alex Kearney & Corrine Rosé, 2021. "Macroprudential Limits on Mortgage Products: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Hasan, Iftekhar & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2020. "National culture and housing credit," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 19-41.
    7. Ianina Roshchina & Natalia Ilyunkina, 2021. "Impact of Government Measures to Support Mortgage Lending on Housing Affordability in Russia: Regional Evidence," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(4), pages 98-123, December.
    8. Karapetyan, A. & Kværner, Jens & Rohrer, Maximilian, 2024. "Inefficient regulation: Mortgages versus total credit," Other publications TiSEM f1611bef-5be9-46fc-8a3e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    11. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Fabienne Helfer & Volker Grossmann & Aderonke Osikominu, 2023. "How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    13. Adams, Zeno & Blickle, Kristian, 2016. "Immigration, Real Estate Prices and the Consumption Decisions of Native Households," Working Papers on Finance 1615, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    14. Dr. Anantha Raj A. Arokiasamy* & Dr. Sam Sarpong, 2019. "Exploring Customer Perceptions on Housing Loan: Evidence from the Malaysian Urban Community," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(8), pages 1193-1203, 08-2019.
    15. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Mariana Vu?a & Adina Ionela Strachinaru & Sorin Iulian Cioaca, 2017. "An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 682-682, August.
    16. Dirk Drechsel & Anne Kathrin Funk, 2017. "Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(I), pages 37-72, March.
    17. Nocera, Andrea & Roma, Moreno, 2017. "House prices and monetary policy in the euro area: evidence from structural VARs," Working Paper Series 2073, European Central Bank.
    18. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    19. Rim, Jongseok, 2024. "Comparative dynamics of housing finance: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Chris Bloor & Bruce Lu, 2019. "Have the LVR restrictions improved the resilience of the banking system?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    21. Lukáš Fiala, 2021. "Modelling of mortgage debt´s determinants: the case of the Czech Republic," FFA Working Papers 4.002, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 15 Jan 2022.
    22. Zaman, Rafia & Das, Debasish Kumar & van Vliet, Oscar & Posch, Alfred, 2021. "Distributional inequality in market-based solar home system programs: Evidence from rural Bangladesh," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    23. Christoph Basten & Michael Siegenthaler, 2019. "Do Immigrants Take or Create Residents’ Jobs? Evidence from Free Movement of Workers in Switzerland," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 994-1019, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; mortgage demand; mortgage supply; IV;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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