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The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply

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  • Christoph Basten
  • Cathérine Koch

Abstract

We identify the causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and supply in Switzerland by exploiting exogenous shocks to immigration and thereby to house prices. Detailed micro data allow us to observe multiple offers for each mortgage request. We find a 1% increase in house prices to raise the requested mortgage amount by 0.52%. Due to positive feedback effects, the entire partial correlation is 0.78%. While we find higher house prices to increase mortgage demand, they induce banks to make fewer offers and charge higher rates, especially later in the boom and especially for highly leveraged households.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Basten & Cathérine Koch, 2014. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply," ECON - Working Papers 140, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:140
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    File URL: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/93275/1/econwp140.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Brown & Benjamin Suman Guin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(II), pages 3-37, June.
    2. Dirk Drechsel & Anne Kathrin Funk, 2017. "Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(I), pages 37-72, March.
    3. Basten, Christhoph & Koch, Cathérine, 2015. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB)," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Christoph Basten, 2020. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 453-495.
    5. Brown, Martin & Guin, Benjamin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Working Papers on Finance 1509, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; mortgage demand; mortgage supply; instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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