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The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

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  • Brown, Martin
  • Guin, Benjamin

Abstract

We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, household income and house value. Our main results suggest that the exposure of mortgage borrowers to interest rate and house price risks is limited in the medium-term. We further document that the choice of mortgage contract seems to be more influenced by affordability concerns than risk concerns. In particular, individual interest rate expectations hardly affect mortgage contract choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, Martin & Guin, Benjamin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Working Papers on Finance 1509, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:09
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1509.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sven DAMEN & Erik BUYST, 2013. "The myopic choice between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages in Flanders," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces13.15, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    2. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    3. Kathrin Degen & Andreas Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(I), pages 15-36, March.
    4. Martin Brown & Matthias Hoffmann, 2016. "Relationship Banking in the Residential Mortgage Market? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(I), pages 23-48, March.
    5. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2014. "Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area," MEA discussion paper series 201406, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    8. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    9. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 457-471, June.
    10. Christoph Basten & Cathérine Koch, 2014. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply," ECON - Working Papers 140, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Nicole Aregger & Martin Brown & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2013. "Transaction Taxes, Capital Gains Taxes and House Prices," Working Papers 2013-02, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Sendhil Mullainathan & Markus Noeth & Antoinette Schoar, 2012. "The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study," NBER Working Papers 17929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    14. repec:mea:meawpa:14283 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabienne Helfer & Volker Grossmann & Aderonke Osikominu, 2023. "How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Guin, Benjamin, 2017. "Culture and household saving," Working Paper Series 2069, European Central Bank.
    3. Blickle, Kristian & Brown, Martin, 2016. "Liquidity Constraints, Wealth Transfers and Home Ownership," Working Papers on Finance 1618, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Martin Brown & Matthias Hoffmann, 2016. "Relationship Banking in the Residential Mortgage Market? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(1), pages 23-48, January.
    5. Basten, Christoph & Mariathasan, Mike, 2023. "Interest rate pass-through and bank risk-taking under negative-rate policies with tiered remuneration of central bank reserves," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Kristian Blickle & Martin Brown, 2019. "Borrowing Constraints, Home Ownership and Housing Choice: Evidence from Intra‐Family Wealth Transfers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 539-580, March.
    7. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage Default; Mortgage Choice; Household Finance; Mortgage Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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