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Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets

Author

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  • Dirk Drechsel

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Anne Kathrin Funk

    (ETH Zurich
    Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)

Abstract

Summary In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland in the 2000s and early 2010s, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in housing demand & supply and business cycle conditions on house prices for the time period 1982–2013. We study intertemporal effects by employing Bayesian timevarying coefficients vector autoregressions (TVC-BVAR), regional effects by using regional BVARs and heterogeneity in housing markets by looking at housing segments. 50 % of house price variations can be explained by housing demand & supply. The response of house prices to mortgage rate shocks weakened after the 1990s real estate crisis and remained constant thereafter. However, owneroccupied apartment prices became again more sensitive to mortgage rate shocks during the recent house price boom. Regional effects are especially prevalent for regions Zurich and Geneva.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Drechsel & Anne Kathrin Funk, 2017. "Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(1), pages 37-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:153:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03399434
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03399434
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    Cited by:

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    3. Liu, Lianyi & Wu, Lifeng, 2020. "Predicting housing prices in China based on modified Holt's exponential smoothing incorporating whale optimization algorithm," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Joël Vonlanthen, 2023. "Interest rates and real estate prices: a panel study," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-25, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C32; R21; R31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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