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The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

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  • Martin Brown
  • Benjamin Suman Guin

Abstract

We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, household income and house value. Our main results suggest that the exposure of mortgage borrowers to interest rate and house price risks is limited in the medium term. We further document that the choice of mortgage contract seems to be more influenced by affordability concerns than risk concerns. In particular, individual interest rate expectations hardly affect mortgage contract choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Brown & Benjamin Suman Guin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(II), pages 3-37, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2015-ii-1
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    9. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 457-471, June.
    10. Christoph Basten & Cathérine Koch, 2014. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply," ECON - Working Papers 140, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Brown & Matthias Hoffmann, 2016. "Relationship Banking in the Residential Mortgage Market? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(1), pages 23-48, January.
    2. Fabienne Helfer & Volker Grossmann & Aderonke Osikominu, 2023. "How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Kristian Blickle & Martin Brown, 2019. "Borrowing Constraints, Home Ownership and Housing Choice: Evidence from Intra‐Family Wealth Transfers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 539-580, March.
    4. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.
    5. Guin, Benjamin, 2017. "Culture and household saving," Working Paper Series 2069, European Central Bank.
    6. Blickle, Kristian & Brown, Martin, 2016. "Liquidity Constraints, Wealth Transfers and Home Ownership," Working Papers on Finance 1618, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    7. Christoph Basten & Mike Mariathasan, 2018. "How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6901, CESifo.
    8. Basten, Christhoph & Koch, Cathérine, 2015. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB)," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage default; mortgage choice; household finance; mortgage risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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