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Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping

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  • Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests consumers rely on their shopping experiences to form beliefs about inflation. In other words, they "learn by shopping". I introduce this empirical observation as an informational friction in the New Keynesian model and use it to study its consequences for the transmission of aggregate shocks and the design of monetary policy. Learning by shopping anchors households' beliefs about inflation to its past, causing disagreement with firms over the value of the real wage. The discrepancy allows nominal shocks to have real effects and makes the slope of the Phillips curve a function of the monetary policy stance. As a result, a more hawkish monetary policy reduces the volatility and persistence of inflation, increases the degree of anchoring of households' inflation expectations, and flattens the slope of the Phillips curve of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation Expectations; Monetary Policy; Business Cycle; Informational Frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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