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The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations

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  • Zhao Han

    (College of William and Mary)

  • Xiaohan Ma

    (Texas Tech University)

  • Ruoyun Mao

    (Grinnell University)

Abstract

We solve a rational expectations model of price formation with nominal rigidity and information frictions analytically to study how dispersed information impacts inflation and inflation expectations, without imposing strong structural assumptions on the aggregate marginal cost. We derive a Phillips curve that links inflation, average inflation forecast (i.e., a first-order expectation), and the net effect of higher-order expectations (HOEs). We quantify the essential role of dispersed information in generating inflation inertia and predictable average nowcast and forecast errors. The estimated effect from dispersed information explains a significant inflation variation, and the net effect of HOEs provides a novel micro-foundation for markup shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2022.04.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Rondina & Todd Walker, 2023. "Equivalence Results With Endogenous Signal Extraction," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-007 Classification-, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation dynamics; Dispersed information; Expectation formation; Higher-order expectations; Frequency domain method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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