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Business-Cycle Anatomy

Author

Listed:
  • George-Marios Angeletos

    (MIT Department of Economics - MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Fabrice Collard
  • Harris Dellas

    (UNIBE - Universität Bern / University of Bern)

Abstract

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy," Post-Print hal-03039252, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03039252
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181174
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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