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On the Convergence of Credit Risk in Current Consumer Automobile Loans

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  • Jackson P. Lautier
  • Vladimir Pozdnyakov
  • Jun Yan

Abstract

Loan seasoning and inefficient consumer interest rate refinance behavior are well-known for mortgages. Consumer automobile loans, which are collateralized loans on a rapidly depreciating asset, have attracted less attention, however. We derive a novel large-sample statistical hypothesis test suitable for loans sampled from asset-backed securities to populate a transition matrix between risk bands. We find all current risk bands eventually converge to a super-prime credit, despite remaining underwater. Economically, our results imply borrowers forwent \$1,153-\$2,327 in potential credit-based savings through delayed prepayment. We present an expected present value analysis to derive lender risk-adjusted profitability. Our results appear robust to COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson P. Lautier & Vladimir Pozdnyakov & Jun Yan, 2022. "On the Convergence of Credit Risk in Current Consumer Automobile Loans," Papers 2211.09176, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2211.09176
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