IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/eaiada/v23y2019i2p99-120n7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Competing Risk Models of Default in the Presence of Early Repayments

Author

Listed:
  • Wycinka Ewa

    (University of Gdańsk, Gdańsk, Poland)

Abstract

One of the central tasks of credit institutions is credit risk assessment, in which the estimation of the probability of default is an important element. The size of an institution’s credit portfolio can decrease as a result of early repayments, which changes the probability of default over time. Prognosis of the probability of default should therefore also take into consideration the prognosis of early repayments. In this paper, methods of evaluating the probability of default over time, using competing risks regression models, are considered. Methods of evaluation for models of default over time are proposed. A sample of retail credits, provided by a Polish financial institution, was empirically examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Wycinka Ewa, 2019. "Competing Risk Models of Default in the Presence of Early Repayments," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 99-120, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:eaiada:v:23:y:2019:i:2:p:99-120:n:7
    DOI: 10.15611/eada.2019.2.07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.15611/eada.2019.2.07
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.15611/eada.2019.2.07?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
    2. Brian A. Ciochetti & Yongheng Deng & Bin Gao & Rui Yao, 2002. "The Termination of Commercial Mortgage Contracts through Prepayment and Default: A Proportional Hazard Approach with Competing Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 595-633.
    3. John P. Klein & Per Kragh Andersen, 2005. "Regression Modeling of Competing Risks Data Based on Pseudovalues of the Cumulative Incidence Function," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 223-229, March.
    4. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2015. "Effects of prepayment regulations on termination of subprime mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 445-456.
    5. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    6. I‐Shou Chang & Chao A. Hsiung & Chi‐Chung Wen & Yuh‐Jenn Wu & Che‐Chi Yang, 2007. "Non‐parametric Maximum‐Likelihood Estimation in a Semiparametric Mixture Model for Competing‐Risks Data," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 34(4), pages 870-895, December.
    7. J Banasik & J N Crook & L C Thomas, 1999. "Not if but when will borrowers default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(12), pages 1185-1190, December.
    8. Maria Stepanova & Lyn Thomas, 2002. "Survival Analysis Methods for Personal Loan Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 277-289, April.
    9. Martin G. Larson & Gregg E. Dinse, 1985. "A Mixture Model for the Regression Analysis of Competing Risks Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 34(3), pages 201-211, November.
    10. Per Kragh Andersen, 2003. "Generalised linear models for correlated pseudo-observations, with applications to multi-state models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(1), pages 15-27, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jackson P. Lautier & Vladimir Pozdnyakov & Jun Yan, 2022. "On the Convergence of Credit Risk in Current Consumer Automobile Loans," Papers 2211.09176, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dirick, Lore & Claeskens, Gerda & Vasnev, Andrey & Baesens, Bart, 2022. "A hierarchical mixture cure model with unobserved heterogeneity for credit risk," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 39-55.
    2. repec:syb:wpbsba:03/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Thi Mai Luong, 2020. "Selection Effects of Lender and Borrower Choices on Risk Measurement, Management and Prudential Regulation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2020, January-A.
    4. Li, Zhiyong & Li, Aimin & Bellotti, Anthony & Yao, Xiao, 2023. "The profitability of online loans: A competing risks analysis on default and prepayment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 968-985.
    5. Sangbum Choi & Xuelin Huang, 2014. "Maximum likelihood estimation of semiparametric mixture component models for competing risks data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 588-598, September.
    6. Djeundje, Viani Biatat & Crook, Jonathan, 2019. "Dynamic survival models with varying coefficients for credit risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 319-333.
    7. Justin Sirignano & Kay Giesecke, 2019. "Risk Analysis for Large Pools of Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 107-121, January.
    8. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    9. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2013. "Local Traits and Securitized Commercial Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 787-813, November.
    10. Tracey Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2005. "Contemporaneous Loan Stress and Termination Risk in the CMBS pool: how "Ruthless" is default?," Working Paper 8582, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    11. Annalisa Orenti & Patrizia Boracchi & Giuseppe Marano & Elia Biganzoli & Federico Ambrogi, 2022. "A pseudo-values regression model for non-fatal event free survival in the presence of semi-competing risks," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(3), pages 709-727, September.
    12. Lok Man Michel Tong & Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Modelling Competitive Mortgage Termination Option Strategies: Default vs Restructuring and Prepayment vs Defeasance," ERES eres2018_300, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    13. Jonathan B. Dressler & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2010. "Survival analysis and mortgage termination at AgChoice ACA," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 21-36, May.
    14. Richard Chamboko & Jorge M. Bravo, 2016. "On the modelling of prognosis from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 264-287, December.
    15. L N Allen & L C Rose, 2006. "Financial survival analysis of defaulted debtors," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 630-636, June.
    16. Burns, Natasha & Jindra, Jan & Minnick, Kristina, 2017. "Sales of private firms and the role of CEO compensation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 444-463.
    17. Sanjiv Jaggia & Satish Thosar, 2019. "An evaluation of chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in a competing risks framework," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 569-581, July.
    18. T Bellotti & J Crook, 2009. "Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1699-1707, December.
    19. Erik T. Parner & Per K. Andersen & Morten Overgaard, 2020. "Cumulative risk regression in case–cohort studies using pseudo-observations," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 639-658, October.
    20. J Banasik & J Crook, 2010. "Reject inference in survival analysis by augmentation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(3), pages 473-485, March.
    21. Luong, Thi Mai & Scheule, Harald, 2022. "Benchmarking forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 750-767.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cox model; Fine-Gray model; pseudo-observations; mixture models; vertical modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:eaiada:v:23:y:2019:i:2:p:99-120:n:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.