IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v50y2002i2p277-289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survival Analysis Methods for Personal Loan Data

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Stepanova

    (UBS AG, Financial Services Group, Pelikanstrasse 6, CH-8098 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Lyn Thomas

    (Department of Management, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom, S017 1BJ)

Abstract

Credit scoring is one of the most successful applications of quantitative analysis in business. This paper shows how using survival-analysis tools from reliability and maintenance modeling allows one to build credit-scoring models that assess aspects of profit as well as default. This survival-analysis approach is also finding favor in credit-risk modeling of bond prices. The paper looks at three extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model applied to personal loan data. A new way of coarse-classifying of characteristics using survival-analysis methods is proposed. Also, a number of diagnostic methods to check adequacy of the model fit are tested for suitability with loan data. Finally, including time-by-characteristic interactions is proposed as a way of possible improvement of the model's predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Stepanova & Lyn Thomas, 2002. "Survival Analysis Methods for Personal Loan Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 277-289, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:50:y:2002:i:2:p:277-289
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.50.2.277.426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.50.2.277.426
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.50.2.277.426?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J Banasik & J N Crook & L C Thomas, 1999. "Not if but when will borrowers default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(12), pages 1185-1190, December.
    2. Ian Cooper & Marcel Martin, 1996. "Default risk and derivative products," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 53-70.
    3. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onorato, Mario & Altman, Edward I., 2005. "An integrated pricing model for defaultable loans and bonds," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 65-82, May.
    2. Alexandre, Michel & Antônio Silva Brito, Giovani & Cotrim Martins, Theo, 2017. "Default contagion among credit modalities: evidence from Brazilian data," MPRA Paper 76859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    4. Jain Mayank & Malik Taniya & Malik Sakshi, 2023. "Deciphering Financial Health and Risk: Hierarchical Relationships and Interdependencies among Key Factors," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 162-185, October.
    5. Kraft, Holger & Steffensen, Mogens, 2008. "How to invest optimally in corporate bonds: A reduced-form approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 348-385, February.
    6. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2010. "Does adding up of economic capital for market- and credit risk amount to conservative risk assessment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 703-712, April.
    7. Richard Chamboko & Jorge M. Bravo, 2016. "On the modelling of prognosis from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 264-287, December.
    8. L N Allen & L C Rose, 2006. "Financial survival analysis of defaulted debtors," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 630-636, June.
    9. Dragon Tang & Hong Yan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Conditions, Firm Characteristics, and Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 177-210, June.
    10. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    11. Chia-Chien Chang & Chou-Wen Wang & Szu-Lang Liao, 2009. "The valuation of special purpose vehicles by issuing structured credit-linked notes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 227-256.
    12. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    13. Pejman Abedifar & Philip Molyneux & Amine Tarazi, 2013. "Risk in Islamic Banking," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(6), pages 2035-2096.
    14. Wei, Jason Z., 2003. "A multi-factor, credit migration model for sovereign and corporate debts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 709-735, October.
    15. T Bellotti & J Crook, 2009. "Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1699-1707, December.
    16. Bernd Engelmann & Ha Pham, 2020. "Measuring the Performance of Bank Loans under Basel II/III and IFRS 9/CECL," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-21, September.
    17. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    18. M Malik & L C Thomas, 2010. "Modelling credit risk of portfolio of consumer loans," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(3), pages 411-420, March.
    19. Andreeva, Galina & Ansell, Jake & Crook, Jonathan, 2007. "Modelling profitability using survival combination scores," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1537-1549, December.
    20. Raupach, Peter, 2015. "Calculating trading book capital: Is risk separation appropriate?," Discussion Papers 19/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:50:y:2002:i:2:p:277-289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.