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A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry

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  • Stillman, Richard P.

Abstract

A newly developed model for the U.S. livestock industry provides quarterly forecasts of livestock prices and quantities and is used in impact analysis where I alternative scenarios are simulated and compared with the model's base forecast. The model incorporates both behavioral and biological equations to project beef, pork, and broiler quantities and prices used by outlook and situation I analysts. The model is estimated over the period 1970-81 using OLS (ordinary I least squares) estimation procedure. The model is also evaluated for the period 1982-84 to test its performance outside the data base. The model's performance I was acceptable given the conditions affecting the livestock sector during the periods studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Stillman, Richard P., 1985. "A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry," Technical Bulletins 157008, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:157008
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.157008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Foote, Richard J. & Williams, Robert R. Jr & Craven, John A., 1973. "Quarterly and Shorter-Term Price Forecasting Models Relating to Cash and Futures Quotations for Pork Bellies," Technical Bulletins 158603, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Crom, Richard, 1970. "A Dynamic Price-Output Model of the Beef and Pork Sectors," Technical Bulletins 171854, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Westcott, Paul C. & Hull, David B., 1985. "A Quarterly Forecasting Model for U.S. Agriculture," Technical Bulletins 156815, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Park, Timothy A., 1990. "Forecast Evaluation For Multivariate Time-Series Models: The U.S. Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, July.
    4. Huang, Kuo S. & Hahn, William F., 1995. "U.S. Quarterly Demand for Meats," Technical Bulletins 156769, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    6. Chen, Dean T. & Dharmaratne, Gerard, 1990. "Endogeneity Testing of Wheat Price Determination in a Nonlinear Simultaneous Structural Model," Research Reports 257905, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    7. Eswaramoorthy, K., 1991. "U.S. livestock production and factor demand: a multiproduct dynamic dual approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010523, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Maples, William E. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Hahn, William & MacLachlan, Matthew & Chalise, Lekhnath, 2022. "Structure of the USDA Livestock and Poultry Baseline Model," USDA Miscellaneous 323861, United States Department of Agriculture.

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