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Quarterly and Shorter-Term Price Forecasting Models Relating to Cash and Futures Quotations for Pork Bellies

Author

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  • Foote, Richard J.
  • Williams, Robert R. Jr
  • Craven, John A.

Abstract

Quarterly and monthly three-equation models designed to predict (a) wholesale cash prices for fresh pork bellies at Chicago, (b) quarterly consumption, and (c) end-of-quarter stocks were developed and fitted, based on data for 1957-71. The major methodological contribution was a demand-for-storage equation that combined a statistical technique developed by Nerlove to measure ?rice expectations with a formula of supply expectations based on data published in the U.S. Department of Agriculture quarterly Hogs a.'ld Pigs report. The models appeared to give reliable forecasts of the endogenous variables for the first half of 197'2, which represents a period beyond the period of fit. Least squares regression equations for predicting pork belly production up to two quarters ahead and models for predicting weekly changes in pork belly prices are also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Foote, Richard J. & Williams, Robert R. Jr & Craven, John A., 1973. "Quarterly and Shorter-Term Price Forecasting Models Relating to Cash and Futures Quotations for Pork Bellies," Technical Bulletins 158603, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:158603
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.158603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark J. Powers, 1967. "Effects of Contract Provisions on the Success of a Futures Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 833-843.
    2. Marvin L. Hayenga & Duane Hacklander, 1970. "Monthly Supply-Demand Relationships for Fed Cattle and Hogs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 535-544.
    3. Wayne A. Fuller & George W. Ladd, 1961. "A Dynamic Quarterly Model of the Beef and Pork Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 43(4_Part_I), pages 797-812.
    4. Crom, Richard, 1970. "A Dynamic Price-Output Model of the Beef and Pork Sectors," Technical Bulletins 171854, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Fox, Karl A., 1953. "The Analysis of Demand for Farm Products," Technical Bulletins 156646, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Sujit K. Roy & Phillip N. Johnson, 1973. "Econometric Models for Quarterly Shell Egg Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(2), pages 209-213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stillman, Richard P., 1985. "A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry," Technical Bulletins 157008, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Ole Gjølberg & Berth-Arne Bengtsson, 1997. "Forecasting quarterly hog prices: Simple autoregressive models vs. naive predictions," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 673-679.
    3. Foote, Richard J. & Roy, Sujit K. & Sadler, George, 1976. "Quarterly Prediction Models For Live Hog Prices," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(01), pages 1-7, July.
    4. Roy, Sujit K. & Foote, Richard J. & Sadler, George, 1976. "Econometric Models of Quarterly and Monthly Live Hog Prices," Archive 259783, Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Foote, Richard J., 1977. "Discussion of George G. Judge's Estimation and Statistical Inference in Economics," A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature, Volume 2: Quantitative Methods in Agricultural Economics, 1940s to 1970s,, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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