IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerstb/158603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quarterly and Shorter-Term Price Forecasting Models Relating to Cash and Futures Quotations for Pork Bellies

Author

Listed:
  • Foote, Richard J.
  • Williams, Robert R. Jr
  • Craven, John A.

Abstract

Quarterly and monthly three-equation models designed to predict (a) wholesale cash prices for fresh pork bellies at Chicago, (b) quarterly consumption, and (c) end-of-quarter stocks were developed and fitted, based on data for 1957-71. The major methodological contribution was a demand-for-storage equation that combined a statistical technique developed by Nerlove to measure ?rice expectations with a formula of supply expectations based on data published in the U.S. Department of Agriculture quarterly Hogs a.'ld Pigs report. The models appeared to give reliable forecasts of the endogenous variables for the first half of 197'2, which represents a period beyond the period of fit. Least squares regression equations for predicting pork belly production up to two quarters ahead and models for predicting weekly changes in pork belly prices are also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Foote, Richard J. & Williams, Robert R. Jr & Craven, John A., 1973. "Quarterly and Shorter-Term Price Forecasting Models Relating to Cash and Futures Quotations for Pork Bellies," Technical Bulletins 158603, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:158603
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.158603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/158603/files/tb1482.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.158603?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark J. Powers, 1967. "Effects of Contract Provisions on the Success of a Futures Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 833-843.
    2. Marvin L. Hayenga & Duane Hacklander, 1970. "Monthly Supply-Demand Relationships for Fed Cattle and Hogs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 535-544.
    3. Wayne A. Fuller & George W. Ladd, 1961. "A Dynamic Quarterly Model of the Beef and Pork Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 43(4_Part_I), pages 797-812.
    4. Crom, Richard, 1970. "A Dynamic Price-Output Model of the Beef and Pork Sectors," Technical Bulletins 171854, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Fox, Karl A., 1953. "The Analysis of Demand for Farm Products," Technical Bulletins 156646, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Sujit K. Roy & Phillip N. Johnson, 1973. "Econometric Models for Quarterly Shell Egg Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(2), pages 209-213.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stillman, Richard P., 1985. "A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry," Technical Bulletins 157008, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Ole Gjølberg & Berth-Arne Bengtsson, 1997. "Forecasting quarterly hog prices: Simple autoregressive models vs. naive predictions," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 673-679.
    3. Roy, Sujit K. & Foote, Richard J. & Sadler, George, 1976. "Econometric Models of Quarterly and Monthly Live Hog Prices," Archive 259783, Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Foote, Richard J. & Roy, Sujit K. & Sadler, George, 1976. "Quarterly Prediction Models For Live Hog Prices," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, July.
    5. Foote, Richard J., 1977. "Discussion of George G. Judge's Estimation and Statistical Inference in Economics," A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature, Volume 2: Quantitative Methods in Agricultural Economics, 1940s to 1970s,, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Probst, Joel Keith, 1982. "Monthly cattle supply and price forecasting models," ISU General Staff Papers 1982010108000018043, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Cornell, Laurence D. & Sorenson, Vernon L., 1986. "Implications of Structural Change in U.S. Demand for Meat on U.S. Livestock and Grain Markets," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201355, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    3. Lee, Tsoung-Chao & Seaver, Stanley K., 1980. "Forecasts Of Farm Animal Production In The New England States And In The U.S," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-6, April.
    4. Reid, Donald W. & Reed, Michael R., 1982. "An Analysis of the Southeastern Feeder Pig Market," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 97-100, December.
    5. Lee, Tsoung-Chao & Seaver, Stanley K., 1980. "Forecasts Of Farm Animal Production In The New England States And In The U.S," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6, April.
    6. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217, january.
    7. Nix, James E. & Martin, Neil R., Jr. & Hubbard, John W., 1975. "An Enterprise Competition Analysis Of Beef Production In The South," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Shafer, Carl E., 1989. "Price And Value Effects Of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971-1987," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-7, July.
    9. Grant, Warren R. & Moore, Donald S., 1970. "Alternative Government Rice Programs: An Economic Evaluation," Agricultural Economic Reports 307408, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Fizaine, Florian, 2018. "Toward generalization of futures contracts for raw materials: A probabilistic answer applied to metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 379-388.
    11. Smith, Rodney B.W. & Gardner, Bruce L., 1989. "Expectations, Futures Prices, and Feedlot Operator Behavior," Working Papers 197622, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    12. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Bjursell, Johan & Frino, Alex & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, George H.K., 2010. "Volatility and trading activity following changes in the size of futures contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 967-980, December.
    14. Poitras, Geoffrey, 2023. "Cobweb Theory, Market Stability, And Price Expectations," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 137-161, March.
    15. Marsh, John M. & Brester, Gary W., 1989. "Intertemporal Price Adjustments In The Beef Market: A Reduced Form Analysis Of Weekly Data," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Meilke, Karl D. & Coleman, Jonathan R., 1986. "An Evaluation of the Influence of Exchange Rates on the Canadian Red Meat Sector," Working Papers 244739, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. Kennya B. Siqueira & Carlos Arthur B. da Silva & Danilo R.D. Aguiar, 2008. "Viability of introducing milk futures contracts in Brazil: a multiple criteria decision analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 491-509.
    18. Stillman, Richard P., 1985. "A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry," Technical Bulletins 157008, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Roberts, Roland K. & Martin, William J., 1984. "State-Level Analysis of National Beef Policy: The Use of State Econometric Models," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 63-72, December.
    20. Reberte, J. Carlos & Schmit, Todd M. & Kaiser, Harry M., 1996. "An Ex Post Evaluation of Generic Egg Advertising in the U.S," Economic Evaluation of Commodity Promotion Programs in the Current Legal and Political Environment, October 7-8, 1996, Monterey, California 279662, Regional Research Projects > NECC-63: Research Committee on Commodity Promotion.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:158603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.