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Increasing Tariffs on Almond and Walnut Exports to Turkey

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  • Beckman, Jayson
  • Jarrell, Philip
  • Morgan, Stephen

Abstract

The retaliatory tariffs against U.S. agricultural exports emerging in mid-2018 have been removed by all countries except for China and Turkey. The tariffs put in place by Turkey largely targeted U.S. tree-nut exports. As of November 2023, Turkey increased the most-favored-nation duty, the tariff that all World Trade Organization members pay, on almonds and walnuts, which further increased the tariff on U.S. exports. This report used a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the impacts to U.S. tree-nut exports from the higher tariff. In addition to the most-favored-nation tariff, the authors examined nontariff barriers that push the effective tariff rate for almonds and walnuts sometimes beyond Turkey’s bound rate (the highest tariff allowed by the World Trade Organization) for imports of tree nuts. The report uses that information to consider a scenario that applied the bound rate for almonds and walnuts to Turkey’s imports. Results indicate that Turkey decreases imports of tree nuts from the United States (and the world) if most-favored-nation tariffs are increased. The effects are magnified if the bound rates are considered. Results from the model indicate that increasing most-favored-nation rates would lead to decreases in U.S. exports to Turkey of almonds by 19.4 percent and walnuts by 26.6 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckman, Jayson & Jarrell, Philip & Morgan, Stephen, 2025. "Increasing Tariffs on Almond and Walnut Exports to Turkey," Economic Brief 349305, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerseb:349305
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.349305
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jayson Beckman & Amanda M. Countryman, 2021. "The Importance of Agriculture in the Economy: Impacts from COVID‐19," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1595-1611, October.
    2. Beckman, Jayson & Ivanic, Maros & Jelliffe, Jeremy L & Baquedano, Felix G & Scott, Sara G, 2020. "Economic and Food Security Impacts of Agricultural Input Reduction Under the European Union Green Deal’s Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies," Economic Brief 327231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Maksym Chepeliev & Alla Golub & Thomas Hertel & Wajiha Saeed & Jayson Beckma, 2021. "Disaggregating the Vegetables, Fruits and Nuts Sector to the Tariff Line in the GTAP-HS Framework," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 6(1), pages 82-127, June.
    4. Morgan, Stephen & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson & Ahsan, Saquib & Russell, Dylan & Jarrell, Philip & Kenner, Bart, 2022. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture," USDA Miscellaneous 316892, United States Department of Agriculture.
    5. Jayson Beckman & Shawn Arita, 2017. "Modeling the Interplay between Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Tariff-rate Quotas under Partial Trade Liberalization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1078-1095.
    6. Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2023. "Retaliatory Tariffs and Container Shipping Disruptions Cause Considerable Trade Damages to California’s Almond Industry," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 1-9.
    7. Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson & Mitchell, Lorraine, 2017. "Reducing transatlantic barriers on U.S.-EU agri-food trade: What are the possible gains?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 233-247.
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