Increasing Tariffs on Almond and Walnut Exports to Turkey

The retaliatory tariffs against U.S. agricultural exports emerging in mid-2018 have been removed by all countries except for China and Turkey. The tariffs put in place by Turkey largely targeted U.S. tree-nut exports. As of November 2023, Turkey increased the most-favored-nation duty, the tariff that all World Trade Organization members pay, on almonds and walnuts, which further increased the tariff on U.S. exports. This report used a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the impacts to U.S. tree-nut exports from the higher tariff. In addition to the most-favored-nation tariff, the authors examined nontariff barriers that push the effective tariff rate for almonds and walnuts sometimes beyond Turkey’s bound rate (the highest tariff allowed by the World Trade Organization) for imports of tree nuts. The report uses that information to consider a scenario that applied the bound rate for almonds and walnuts to Turkey’s imports. Results indicate that Turkey decreases imports of tree nuts from the United States (and the world) if most-favored-nation tariffs are increased. The effects are magnified if the bound rates are considered. Results from the model indicate that increasing most-favored-nation rates would lead to decreases in U.S. exports to Turkey of almonds by 19.4 percent and walnuts by 26.6 percent.