IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332923.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Brexit – an economy-wide Impact Assessment looking into trade, immigration, and Foreign Direct Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Jafari, Yaghoob
  • Britz, Wolfgang

Abstract

We provide an impact assessment of Brexit along three dimensions: EU market access considering tariffs and non-tariff barriers, impacts of less EU citizen working in the UK and reductions in Foreign Direct Investment. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model integrating the Melitz (2003) framework, we consider capital accumulation and feedback of population size on tax income and demand for public services. In our worst-case scenario with all dimensions considered simultaneously, welfare losses per UK citizen amount to around 1.300 USD, exceeding result of other studies which we link to comprehensive scenario design and applying the Melitz model for manufacturing sectors. Keywords: Brexit, Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Modern trade theory JEL classification: C68, C63

Suggested Citation

  • Jafari, Yaghoob & Britz, Wolfgang, 2017. "Brexit – an economy-wide Impact Assessment looking into trade, immigration, and Foreign Direct Investment," Conference papers 332923, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332923/files/8405.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
    2. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Zeynep Akgul & Nelson B Villoria & Thomas W Hertel, 2016. "GTAP-HET: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity into the GTAP Model," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 111-180, June.
    4. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    5. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2014. "The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(580), pages 593-643, November.
    6. Busch, Berthold & Matthes, Jürgen, 2016. "Brexit - the economic impact: A meta-analysis," IW-Reports 10/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    7. Jeff Luckstead & Stephen Devadoss, 2016. "Impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on Processed Food Trade under Monopolistic Competition and Firm Heterogeneity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1389-1402.
    8. Ingo Borchert & Batshur Gootiiz & Aaditya Mattoo, 2014. "Policy Barriers to International Trade in Services: Evidence from a New Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 162-188.
    9. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Pessoa, João Paulo & Sampson, Thomas & Van Reenen, John, 2014. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU," CFS Working Paper Series 472, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yaghoob Jafari & Wolfgang Britz, 2020. "Brexit: an economy-wide impact assessment on trade, immigration, and foreign direct investment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 17-52, February.
    2. Jafari, Yaghoob & Britz, Wolfgang, 2018. "Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 279-294.
    3. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2018. "Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 193-204.
    4. Jafari, Yaghoob & Britz, Wolfgang, 2016. "Prospects of the Food Processing Sector under Tariff and Non-Tariff Measures Liberalization in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," Discussion Papers 250254, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    5. Niemi, Janne, 2019. "Trade, persistent habits and development - a dynamic CGE model analysis," Conference papers 333084, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    7. Philippidis, George & Waschik, Robert, 2016. "Removal of EU Milk Quotas Using a CGE Model with Imperfect Competition and Heterogeneous Firms," Conference papers 332682, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    9. Peter Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen Rimmer, 2016. "Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: The Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 1-110, June.
    10. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Contributions Of The Gatt/Wto To Global Economic Welfare: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 56-92, February.
    11. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2020. "Comparison of deep integration in the Melitz, Krugman and Armington models: The case of The Philippines in RCEP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 255-271.
    12. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2017. "Trade and FDI-related impacts of Brexit," Conference papers 332876, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Ahmad, Saad & Akgul, Zeynep, 2018. "Using Power Laws to Identify the Structural Parameters of Trade Models with Firm Heterogeneity," Conference papers 332993, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Robinson, Sherman, 2020. "Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 72-87.
    15. Peter Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen Rimmer, 2019. "Melitz in GTAP Made Easy: the A2M Conversion Method and Result Interpretation," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 97-127, June.
    16. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "Trade-induced productivity gains reduce incentives to impose strategic tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 420-431.
    17. Oliveira, Paulo Felipe & Cordeiro, Pedro Antero, 2023. "Trade policy analysis in Brazil: Assessing welfare impacts with revised Armington elasticities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. Lorenzo Caliendo & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades," NBER Working Papers 21768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kano, Kazuko & Kano, Takashi & Takechi, Kazutaka, 2013. "Exaggerated death of distance: Revisiting distance effects on regional price dispersions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 403-413.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.