IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/dgtcen/2019_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Nilsson, Lars

    (DG Trade)

Abstract

This paper discusses various aspects of economic modelling of free trade agreements (FTAs) raised directly or indirectly by high-level policymakers and the general public with an interest in trade, including explicit free trade critics. It starts with a brief description of the basic features of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, their gradual adaptation to modern trade theory and some of the criticism they have been subject to. The paper then discusses the underlying workhorse data and points to a few critical areas which are in need of further efforts to increase the quality of model based simulations. It also describes on-going efforts and past projects that have been undertaken to improve the tools available to modellers. Some necessary practical modelling choices are then discussed in terms of their impact on the modelling results followed by some thoughts on how the results of relatively complex technical undertakings such as CGE modelling exercises could be presented to a broad audience.

Suggested Citation

  • Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2019_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/analysis-and-assessment/economic-analysis_en#notes
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Peter Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen Rimmer, 2016. "Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: The Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 1-110, June.
    3. Disdier, Anne‐Célia & Emlinger, Charlotte & Fouré, Jean, 2016. "Interdependencies between Atlantic and Pacific agreements: Evidence from agri-food sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 241-253.
    4. Lejour, Arjan & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "Opening services markets within Europe: Modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1022-1039, September.
    5. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    6. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    7. Philipp Lamprecht & Sébastien Miroudot, 2020. "The value of market access and national treatment commitments in services trade agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2880-2904, November.
    8. Olivier Cadot & Julien Gourdon, 2016. "Non-tariff measures, preferential trade agreements, and prices: new evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 227-249, May.
    9. Hummels, David, 1999. "Toward a Geography of Trade Costs," GTAP Working Papers 1162, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    11. Krugman, Paul R, 1993. "What Do Undergrads Need to Know about Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 23-26, May.
    12. Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolàs & Jack Rossbach, 2017. "Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 295-325, September.
    13. Lakatos, Csilla & Fukui, Tani, 2014. "The Liberalization of Retail Services in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 327-340.
    14. John Christopher Beghin & Anne-Célia Disdier & Stéphan Marette, 2017. "Trade restrictiveness indices in the presence of externalities: An application to non-tariff measures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 5, pages 81-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    16. Csilla Lakatos & Lars Nilsson, 2017. "The EU-Korea FTA: anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 179-198, February.
    17. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    18. Ossa, Ralph, 2015. "Why trade matters after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 266-277.
    19. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    20. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    21. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    22. Lionel Fontagné & Cristina E Mitaritonna & José E Signoret, 2016. "Estimated Tariff Equivalents of Services NTMs," Working Papers hal-01476543, HAL.
    23. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    24. Ciuriak, Dan & Xiao, Jingliang, 2014. "The Impact of the Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement as Negotiated," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 18(4), pages 425-461, December.
    25. Cadot, Olivier, 2015. "NTMs, Preferential Trade Agreements, and Prices: New evidence," Papers 807, World Trade Institute.
    26. Ingo Borchert & Batshur Gootiiz & Aaditya Mattoo, 2014. "Policy Barriers to International Trade in Services: Evidence from a New Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 162-188.
    27. repec:hal:pseose:hal-00961727 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
    29. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    30. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2011. "Innovation and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 17178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Forizs, Virág & Nilsson, Lars, 2017. "Trade Effects of the EU–Korea Free Trade Agreement: A Comparative Analysis of Expected and Observed Outcomes," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 18(1), July.
    32. Jonathan E. Haskel & Sonia C. Pereira & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2007. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 482-496, August.
    33. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 303-377, Elsevier.
    34. Hummels, David, 1999. "Toward a Geography of Trade Costs," Working papers 283448, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    35. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2013. "Computing General Equilibrium Theories of Monopolistic Competition and Heterogeneous Firms," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1513-1570, Elsevier.
    36. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates In The Gtap Data Base," Technical Papers 28721, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    37. Dan Ciuriak & Ali Dadkhah & Jingliang Xiao, 2016. "Better in than Out? Canada and the Trans-Pacific Partnership," e-briefs 236, C.D. Howe Institute.
    38. Sangeeta Khorana & María García (ed.), 2018. "Handbook on the EU and International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17116.
    39. Zeynep Akgul & Nelson B Villoria & Thomas W Hertel, 2016. "GTAP-HET: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity into the GTAP Model," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 111-180, June.
    40. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    41. Caitlyn Carrico, 2017. "An Enhanced Analytical Framework for Evaluating the Effects of Trade Costs along Global Value Chains," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(2), pages 43-111, December.
    42. Narayanan, Badri & Thomas Hertel & Mark Horridge, 2010. "Linking Partial and General Equilibrium Models: A GTAP Application Using TASTE," GTAP Technical Papers 3192, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    43. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    44. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    45. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1213-1269, Elsevier.
    46. Massimo Geloso Grosso & Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås & Asako Ueno & Frédéric Gonzales & Iza Lejárraga & Sébastien Miroudot & Dorothée Rouzet, 2014. "Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): Transport and Courier Services," OECD Trade Policy Papers 176, OECD Publishing.
    47. Evdokia Moïsé & Silvia Sorescu, 2013. "Trade Facilitation Indicators: The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries' Trade," OECD Trade Policy Papers 144, OECD Publishing.
    48. Peter B. Dixon, 2006. "Evidence-based Trade Policy Decision Making in Australia and the Development of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-163, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    49. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.
    50. Fukui, Tani & Csilla Lakatos, 2012. "A Global Database of Foreign Affiliate Sales," GTAP Research Memoranda 4009, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zembele, Adwell, 2022. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of The Potential Effects Of The African Continental Free Trade Area On The Malawi Economy," Conference papers 333393, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "The computable general equilibrium analysis of the reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures within the Korea-Japan-European Union free trade agreement," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Jafari, Yaghoob & Britz, Wolfgang, 2018. "Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 279-294.
    3. Peter Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen Rimmer, 2016. "Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: The Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 1-110, June.
    4. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2020. "Comparison of deep integration in the Melitz, Krugman and Armington models: The case of The Philippines in RCEP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 255-271.
    5. Ahmad, Saad & Akgul, Zeynep, 2018. "Using Power Laws to Identify the Structural Parameters of Trade Models with Firm Heterogeneity," Conference papers 332993, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    8. Chae‐Deug Yi, 2023. "The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the European Union," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 227-253, April.
    9. Bas, Maria & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2017. "From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and heterogeneity in the trade elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    11. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2017. "Market Structure and the impact of RCEP in The Philippines: What are the Differences between Melitz, Krugman and Armington Models," Conference papers 332835, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Ghodsi, Mahdi, 2023. "Exploring the ‘non-tariff measures black box’: Whose regulatory NTMs on which products improve the imported quality?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 45-67.
    13. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1213-1269, Elsevier.
    14. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2016. "Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 1010-1043, October.
    16. Niemi, Janne, 2019. "Trade, persistent habits and development - a dynamic CGE model analysis," Conference papers 333084, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Oliveira, Paulo Felipe & Cordeiro, Pedro Antero, 2023. "Trade policy analysis in Brazil: Assessing welfare impacts with revised Armington elasticities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Bolatto, Stefano & Moramarco, Graziano, 2023. "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 44-68.
    19. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic modelling; free trade agreements;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2019_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dgtecbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.