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The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU

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  • Pierre Boulanger
  • George Philippidis

Abstract

This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as €14.0 billion, with the EU‐28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Boulanger & George Philippidis, 2015. "The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 832-842, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:66:y:2015:i:3:p:832-842
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12120
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    7. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
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    1. Guedes, E.F. & Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "An econophysics approach to study the effect of BREXIT referendum on European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1175-1182.
    2. Yaghoob Jafari & Wolfgang Britz, 2020. "Brexit: an economy-wide impact assessment on trade, immigration, and foreign direct investment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 17-52, February.
    3. Paulo Ferreira & Éder Pereira, 2019. "The impact of the Brexit referendum on British and European Union bank shares: a cross-correlation analysis with national indices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 335-346.
    4. Alan Swinbank, 2016. "Summary," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 5-10, August.
    5. Carmen Hubbard & John Davis & Siyi Feng & David Harvey & Anne Liddon & Andrew Moxey & Mercy Ojo & Myles Patton & George Philippidis & Charles Scott & Shailesh Shrestha & Michael Wallace, 2018. "Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 17(2), pages 19-26, August.
    6. Siemen van Berkum & Roel Jongeneel & Myrna van Leeuwen, 2018. "Brexit's Agri‐trade Impacts on the Netherlands," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 17(2), pages 38-46, August.
    7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Wolters, Maik H., 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2016 - Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur [World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng & Corong, Erwin, 2023. "Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Crafts, Nicholas, 2016. "The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: a Review of the Evidence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 280, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    10. Banse, Martin & Freund, Florian, 2018. "Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update," Thünen Working Paper 271872, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    11. Grochowska, Renata & Kosior, Katarzyna, 2016. "EU budget negotiations in the shadow of the juste retour rule," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 252637, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    12. Roel Jongeneel & Siemen Berkum & Hans Vrolijk, 2016. "Summary," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 26-33, August.
    13. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2016. "Impact of Brexit: Firm Exit and Loss of Variety," GRIPS Discussion Papers 16-14, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    14. Mitchell, Lorraine S., 2018. "Brexit and the UK’s Agricultural Trade," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274268, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ferrer, Jorge Núñez & Rinaldi, David, 2016. "The Impact of Brexit on the EU Budget: A non-catastrophic event," CEPS Papers 11814, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    16. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    17. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 181-192.
    18. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2018. "Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 193-204.
    19. Marcin Pigłowski, 2021. "The Intra-European Union Food Trade with the Relation to the Notifications in the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, February.

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