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The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential Address

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  • Hertel, Thomas

Abstract

Over the past three years, there has been a convergence of interest in the global farm and food system and its contributions to feeding the world’s population as well as to ensuring the environmental sustainability of the planet. The 2007/2008 commodity crisis underscored the vulnerability of the global food system to shocks from extreme weather events, energy and financial markets, as well as government interventions in the form of export bans and other measures designed to avoid domestic adjustment to global scarcity. We have learned that a "perfect storm" in which all these factors coincide can have a devastating impact on the world’s poor, as well as putting considerable pressure on the world’s natural resource base. As we look ahead to the middle of this century, will such commodity price spikes become more commonplace? Will the world’s agricultural resource base be up to the task of meeting the diverse demands being placed on it?

Suggested Citation

  • Hertel, Thomas, 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential Address," GTAP Working Papers 3428, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:3428
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 63
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    File URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=3428
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Arguello C & Daniel Valderrama G. & Sandra Acero W., 2011. "Poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in an opening economy: the case of Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 8575, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Brown, Jason P. & Weber, Jeremy G. & Wojan, Timothy R., 2013. "Emerging Energy Industries and Rural Growth," Economic Research Report 262215, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Alla A. Golub & Thomas W. Hertel, 2012. "Modeling Land-Use Change Impacts Of Biofuels In The Gtap-Bio Framework," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-30.
    4. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    5. Schuenemann, Franziska & Delzeit, Ruth, 2017. "Higher income and higher prices: the role of demand specifications and elasticities of livestock products for global land use," Conference papers 332905, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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